The Cleveland Guardians host the Pittsburgh Pirates on July 17, 2026. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SportsNet PT.
The Guardians are favored by -125 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Pirates are +105 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Pirates vs Guardians prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Pirates vs Guardians Prediction
- Pirates vs Guardians Pick: Under 7.5 (-125 or Better)
My Pirates vs Guardians best bet is the Under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Guardians Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +166 | 7.5 -111o / -109u | +105 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -200 | 7.5 -111o / -109u | -125 |
- Pirates vs Guardians moneyline: Pirates +105, Guardians -125
- Pirates vs Guardians over/under: 7.5 (-111o / -109u)
- Pirates vs Guardians spread: Guardians -1.5 (+166 ), Pirates +1.5 (-200)
Pirates vs Guardians Probable Pitchers
| Jared Jones (RHP) | Stat | Gavin Williams (RHP) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | W-L | 10-4 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.9 |
| 4.37/3.61 | ERA / xERA | 3.81/4.43 |
| 3.67/3.43 | FIP / xFIP | 3.74/3.16 |
| 19.4 | K-BB% | 21.1 |
| 45.2 | GB% | 47.3 |
| .270 | BABIP | .283 |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 104 |
| 105 | Location+ | 104 |
Pirates vs Guardians MLB Betting Preview
Editor's Note: This written pick is a transcription from today's episode of the Payoff Pitch Podcast.
One more under I like on today's slate: Pirates and Guardians under 7.5, down to about -125. I project this at 6.75.
The Pirates are currently down four regular hitters — Connor Griffin, O'Neil Cruz, Spencer Horwitz, and Andy Rodriguez- who'd been hitting really well prior to going on the IL. So with the Pirates taking some offensive hits, and the Guardians having Jose Ramirez out as well, I project both of these offenses as below average.
And I love both starting pitchers here. Jared Jones has a whiff rate of 33% in his brief sample and seems to be getting better with more reps. Gavin Williams is a guy I've always been high on; his expected FIP is around 3.1 right now, with Jones at 3.4.
Both of these guys rate well above average among my top 35 starting pitchers, and they're going against below-average offenses on this slate. The Pirates' offense can be a bit of a problem, but they're fully rested today.
I make this total 6.75. Wind is blowing in, not very strong, with temperatures in the low 80s.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-125 or Better)
