The Cleveland Guardians host the Baltimore Orioles on July 24, 2025. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
Find my MLB betting preview and Orioles vs Guardians prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Orioles vs Guardians Prediction
- Orioles vs Guardians Picks: Over 9 (-115 or better)
My Orioles vs Guardians best bet is on the Over. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Orioles vs Guardians Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +153 | 9 -113o / -107u | -101 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -188 | 9 -113o / -107u | -121 |
Orioles vs Guardians Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Charlie Morton (BAL) | Stat | LHP Logan Allen (CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-8 | W-L | 6-8 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.0 |
| 5.58 / 4.35 | ERA / xERA | 4.06 / 4.41 |
| 4.58 / 4.22 | FIP / xFIP | 4.33 / 4.58 |
| 1.56 | WHIP | 1.38 |
| 12.5% | K-BB% | 8.6% |
| 43.2% | GB% | 44.5% |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 93 |
| 96 | Location+ | 97 |
Tony Sartori’s Orioles vs Guardians Preview
Why The Orioles Can Win
Age is beginning to catch up to Charlie Morton. The 41-year-old is in the midst of one of the worst seasons of his professional career, with a 5-8 record, 5.58 ERA and 1.56 WHIP.
His underlying metrics suggest we should expect more of the same. Entering this matchup, Morton ranks in the 31st percentile among qualified pitchers in expected ERA (xERA), 39th percentile in expected batting average (xBA) allowed, 15th percentile in average exit velocity allowed, and 46th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed.
These struggles are likely to continue against Cleveland, a team that shelled him in their lone meeting earlier this season. In that outing, Morton surrendered five runs on seven hits across five innings of work.
There were nine total runs scored in that game, and a similarly high-scoring affair could unfold Thursday. Although Baltimore hasn’t been dominant at the plate this season, it boasts a strong track record against Logan Allen.
Why The Guardians Can Win
Through 26 combined plate appearances against Allen, the current Orioles roster owns a .333 batting average, .714 slugging percentage and .489 weighted on-base average (wOBA).
Like Morton, Allen has also struggled this year. Across his 19 appearances, the left-hander is 6-8 with a 4.06 ERA and 1.38 WHIP.
Also like Morton, Allen’s analytics are poor. Entering this matchup, he ranks in the bottom third of the qualified pitchers in xERA, strikeout rate, walk rate, and barrel rate allowed.
Among the many similarities between these two teams is that Cleveland’s below-average lineup has historically succeeded against Morton. Through 64 combined plate appearances, the current Guardians roster owns a .241 batting average, .481 slugging percentage and .344 wOBA.
How To Make Orioles vs Guardians Picks
Both starting pitchers have been shaky this year, while both lineups have found success against them in the past.
That alone is enough to consider the over, and the weather may also offer a slight boost — forecasts call for humid conditions and winds blowing out to right-center field during the game.
Mix all these variables, and another nine-run total seems likely, just like the last time Morton and Allen faced off.
Pick: Over 9 (-115 or better)
Moneyline
I lean toward Cleveland, but I don't trust Allen.
Run Line (Spread)
I also like Cleveland to cover, but I'm staying away for the same reason listed above.
Over/Under
As mentioned, I'm betting Over 9.
