If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google.
The Tampa Bay Rays host the Cleveland Guardians on October 13, 2026. First pitch from Tropicana Field is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on truTV.
The Rays are favored by -132 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Guardians are +112 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 6.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Guardians vs Rays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Guardians vs Rays Prediction
- Guardians vs Rays Pick: Guardians Moneyline
My Guardians vs Rays best bet is for the Guardians to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page and make sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Guardians vs Rays Odds
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -196 | 6.5 -132o / 108u | +112 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +162 | 6.5 -132o / 108u | -132 |
- Guardians vs Rays moneyline: Guardians +112, Rays -132
- Guardians vs Rays over/under: 6.5 (-132o / +108u)
- Guardians vs Rays spread: Guardians +1.5 (-196), Rays -1.5 (+162)
Guardians vs Rays Probable Pitchers
| Parker Messick (LHP, CLE) | Stat | Freddy Peralta (RHP, TB) |
|---|---|---|
| 12-9 | W-L | 10-11 |
| 4.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.9 |
| 2.56 / 3.13 | ERA / xERA | 4.42 / 3.82 |
| 3.07 / 3.36 | FIP / xFIP | 4.28 / 4.37 |
| 19.3% | K-BB% | 12.7% |
| 44.3% | GB% | 39.4% |
| .273 | BABIP | .288 |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 106 | Location+ | 106 |
Guardians vs Rays MLB Betting Preview
Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview
The Cleveland Guardians may have crawled their way into Game 1 of the ALCS on Monday night, waiting as their seven hits amounted to just one run through six innings, but the floodgates would eventually open and push them ahead in this best-of-seven.
Cleveland ended with 14 hits in what was a 7-3 win over Tampa, and now they'll look to put more runners on base against Freddy Peralta on Tuesday. The Guards' offense has been the second-best in all of baseball this postseason to only the Brewers, posting a 104 wRC+ through six games, and they've out-slugged every team that made it to the divisional round with a .150 Isolated Power.
On top of that, the Guardians lead the postseason with a 12.2% walk rate, and have struck out just 20.4% of the time — second-best once again, this time to the Rays.
We know things are clicking for this offense, but on the mound is where things have grown volatile. The bullpen does own a solid 2.53 ERA thus far in the playoffs, but starters have recorded a 3.68 ERA, which leaves a lot to be desired.
Parker Messick has been one of the guiltiest on the staff, allowing four earned runs through 6 2/3 innings of work in the ALDS. While he did rack up an impressive 11 strikeouts across the two games he pitched, he also walked six and allowed one home run.
Fortunately, Messick has been phenomenal against the Rays this season with a 1.35 ERA across 13 1/3 innings, and there's a lot of promise heading into this one. The second-year man out of Florida State is a left-hander, and Tampa Bay sat just 26th in wRC+ against southpaws this year.
He also favors the ground ball, something that jives with the Rays' preference to hit the ball in the air. Tampa Bay was just 18th against ground-ballers in terms of OPS, ranking in the top 10 the other way around.
So, there are a couple of different ways in which this is a tough matchup for Tampa, and Messick's track record against the AL East champs is all the proof you need. He also almost exclusively featured the four-seamer and changeup against the Rays this season, and against fastballs from lefties, the Rays sat 28th in Expected Batting Average.
Even though they've hit the changeup, Messick threw a whopping 62 fastballs on 94 pitches in his last start against Tampa Bay, and it proved to be highly effective as he allowed six hits over 7 2/3 innings with no walks.
Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview
The Rays will counter with Freddy Peralta here, making a bet on their coaching staff in the process. Peralta has never been one of my favorite pitchers due to his high volatility and affinity for the walk and home run, and this year started off in disastrous fashion as the right-hander turned 30 and allowed opponents to hit a career-worst .264 against him with the Mets before pitching more effectively in Tampa Bay.
Peralta's opposing batting average dropped to .208 with the Rays, and he finished with a 3.25 ERA in 10 starts. We saw an even-deeper drop in strikeouts from a once-prominent punchout arm, however, so even though he did manage to hone in on his issues with the walk somewhat, he was relying on outs on contact while also still allowing one home run per nine.
Now, Peralta could easily only pitch a few innings here; he normally doesn't complete six even in the regular season. While that may seem like a relief for Tampa Bay, if he does prove to be the same guy we've known for years, the Rays' bullpen isn't exactly lighting the world on fire. After last night's meltdown, they own a 4.61 ERA to rank 10th of the full 12 playoff teams, and during the regular season they ranked just 14th.
That means the onus really is squarely on Peralta to win this game, and it'll come in his first meeting with the Guardians in over a year. Cleveland did rank just 17th in xBA to changeups from righties this season, which is concerning given that's Peralta's best pitch, but after seeing a huge jump in usage on that pitch when he initially joined the Rays, he did throw fewer in September.
The Guardians did also improve against the pitch in the second half with a .264 xBA against changeups from righties, ranked fourth, and for the year were the second-best team against fastballs.
Of course, the footnote on this section must be about Junior Caminero, who was injured in a scary-looking collision in the ninth inning of Game 1. He's not expected to miss this game, but we have to wonder if his shoulder and/or upper body is feeling quite the same.
Guardians vs Rays Pick, Betting Analysis
The Cleveland Guardians have yet to lose on the road this season in three tries, and unfortunately for the Rays, I do think that trend will continue. This offense is simply head and shoulders ahead of Tampa's at the present moment, and that skews an already-favorable pitching matchup that much further towards the underdogs.
Messick has looked incredibly sharp against the Rays this season, and even with two mediocre showings in the ALDS, I have full faith in one of the best pitchers in baseball to show up here.
Tampa Bay has had an awful time against lefties this year and simply was not able to hit Messick's fastball the last time they played — something that's not very surprising with its awful showing against the pitch from southpaws this year. Cleveland's bullpen has also outclassed the Rays' in every way, and to make matters worse for the home team, this offense doesn't look to be in a bad spot at all against Peralta.
With the best walk rate in the postseason, Cleveland will threaten to populate the bases against Peralta — who's had a career-long bout with walks — and with the stronger of the two bullpens it should be able to maintain a lead if it jumps all over Peralta early.
I know it can be uncomfortable to ride a wave like this, which feels like it may stop at any moment, but this isn't the pitching matchup you want if you're the Rays.
Pick: Guardians ML (+112) | Play to -105
