The Kansas City Royals host the Baltimore Orioles on April 20, 2026. First pitch from Kauffman Stadium is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on ROYL.
The Orioles are favored by -118 on the moneyline and by -1.5 (+135) on the run line. The Royals are -102 on the moneyline and +1.5 (-163) on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Orioles vs Royals prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Orioles vs Royals Predictions, Picks
- Kyle Bradish Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160)
- Taylor Ward 1+ Hits (-200)
Parlay Odds: +136
Orioles vs Royals Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 9 -105o / -115u | -118 |
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -163 | 9 -105o / -115u | -102 |
- Orioles vs Royals moneyline: Orioles -118, Royals -102
- Orioles vs Royals over/under: 9 (-105o / -115u)
- Orioles vs Royals spread: Orioles -1.5 (+135), Royals +1.5 (-163)
Orioles vs Royals Probable Pitchers
| RHP Kyle Bradish (BAL) | Stat | RHP Seth Lugo (KCR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | W-L | 1-1 |
| 0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 5.49/3.06 | ERA / xERA | 1.48/3.71 |
| 3.18/3.77 | FIP / xFIP | 2.14/3.32 |
| 1.63 | WHIP | 0.99 |
| 12.5% | K-BB% | 16.3% |
| 50.9% | GB% | 42.2% |
| 100 | Stuff+ | 87 |
| 96 | Location+ | 110 |
Orioles vs Royals MLB Betting Preview
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview
It's been a tough start to the year for Kyle Bradish. I don't know if these pro athletes listen to the hype (or lack thereof) going on about them in the preseason, but I imagine most of them do. So Bradish really has to be asking himself some questions. Most of us thought he was poised for a huge season.
There were some doubters, myself included, but what even I would not have expected was a strikeout rate below 25%.
The problem for Bradish has been the lack of a good fastball. And this isn't new. He has always done his damage primarily with a slider and curveball. This year, with a full season to cover and hopes of covering 140+ innings, the fastballs have been hard to hide.
He's throwing a sinker 30% of the time, and that pitch has an insanely bad 3.7% SwStr% on it with a 41% Strike% (foul balls, called strikes, and whiffs). All of the elite pitchers in baseball get a bunch of strikes with their fastball; Bradish has been one of the worst in the league at doing that this year.
The slider, for its part, hasn't been quite as elite as last year, either.
- 2025: 32% usage, 106.1 Stuff+, 54% Strike%, 36% Ball%, .118 xwOBA allowed
- 2026: 38% usage, 102.3 Stuff+, 52% Strike%, 34% Ball%, .234 xwOBA allowed
It's still a good pitch for him, but it's not an automatic good outcome. It's also not a pitch you typically want to throw when behind in the count, and Bradish has been behind the count a lot with a 50% ball rate on the first pitch he's throwing to batters (that's the third-highest in the league among qualified SPs).
The matchup for Bradish, though, could prove to be a get-right spot. The Royals are dead last in the league in run-scoring right now and have lost seven in a row. The bottom of their lineup was never going to be good this year, but at least they had some studs up top.
That group of pro hitters is mostly off to a slow start. Bobby Witt hasn't homered (despite a 12.5% Brl%), Maikel Garcia is hitting just .244 (despite a .270 xBA), Vinnie Pasquantino has an OPS of .499 (despite the plate discipline stuff looking very similar to last year when he broke out).
There are truly cold hitters here like Salvador Perez (.189 xBA, .252 xwOBA), but mostly it's a lineup that has had plenty of bad luck and should round into decent shape soon.
Bradish will probably improve as we go forward, but his ceiling is very much capped by the lack of a good fastball. And it's the same on the other side. I expect the Royals to get out of the bottom ten in run-scoring by the time we're in the meat of the season. But what will happen tonight?
Kansas City Royals Betting Preview
Seth Lugo opposes Bradish. And unlike his counterpart, he's off to a great start. Lugo sports a 1.48 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP this year in four starts and 24.1 innings. His 3.63 SIERA is nothing special, but it's way better than last year when he was at 4.53 while dealing with some injuries.
Lugo's game is throwing a bunch of different stuff at hitters and commanding it well. He's thrown nine different pitch types this year and has just a 6.5% BB% with a 34.1% Ball%. His curveball might be his only truly good pitch, but the quality of the pitches matters a lot less when no hitter can ever sit on what's coming next.
The Orioles lineup is a good one; there is no shortage of talent in this unit. But so far, it hasn't played out. They have a team .230/.316/.373 slash line with a below average 6.7% team barrel rate. I didn't see this group of hitters posting a sub-7% Brl%. I suspect they won't for very long, either, but the young guys mostly haven't hit, and Pete Alonso and Gunnar Henderson are both around a .200 batting average in these first three weeks.
Orioles vs Royals Pick, Betting Analysis
I don't have a ton of conviction in predicting the future for either of these starting pitchers. The one thing I want to present again to you is that Stuff+ decline on Bradish's slider. It's more of a good slider this year rather than the league-topping slider we saw from him last year in his return from injury. Pairing that with a fastball (sinker) that simply can't get whiffs is a recipe for low strikeout totals.
It's juiced up, but I'm surprised at DraftKings putting this O/U at 5.5. Kyle Bradish (-157) looks good to me. But if you're super averse to the juice, we can find you another leg to tag on it.
Checking out the Matchups Model! This is a resource available to subscribers at MLB Data Warehouse, it gives you the numbers on how each hitter performs against the movement profiles of the pitches they'll see from tonight's opposing SP. Three Orioles stack up well against the barrage of stuff that Lugo throws:
- Gunnar Henderson: .401 xwOBA, 10.4% SwStr%, .288 AVG, .523 SLG
- Taylor Ward: .427 xwOBA, 8.5% SwStr%, .294 AVG, .576 SLG
- Pete Alonso: .423 xwOBA, 7.8% SwStr%, .291 AVG, .608 SLG
There's a bit of a boost in the hits market caused by Lugo only being good for 1-2 walks per night. And his lower strikeout rate means we'll get a bunch of balls put in play by the Orioles. Taylor Ward has looked the best of those three hitters so far this year, so I'll choose him for my two-leg parlay.
- Kyle Bradish Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160)
- Taylor Ward 1+ Hits (-200)
Parlay Odds: +136
