Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Colorado Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado
Betting Odds: Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies
- Over/Under: 10.5
- First Pitch: 8:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network)
- Probable Pitchers: Kenta Maeda (Dodgers) vs. Jon Gray (Rockies)
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Coors Field is a hitter-friendly ballpark. The Rockies’ stadium has ranked first in ESPN’s Park Factor, which compares rate of stats at home vs. on the road, in eight of the past 10 years (finished second in 2011 and is currently second this season).
Located nearly a mile above sea level, the thin air allows baseballs to travel farther, which benefits hitters. The air density also affects pitchers by reducing the effectiveness of breaking balls. In short, baseballs carry about 20% farther and breaking pitches move about 20% less leading to increased scoring.
More runs should mean it has been profitable to bet the over in Coors Field. Since 2005, there is a decisive split in Rockies home and road games according to Bet Labs:
The best time to bet the over in Colorado is during the summer months. Warm temperatures cause air to expand, which allows balls to travel even further. According to U.S. climate data, the warmest months in the state are June to September. During these summer months, overs have gone 383-340-31 (53%), +23.44 units in Rockies home games.
Historically, there has been value betting overs in low-total games. This is a trend we see across sports. The more runs the teams are required to score the easier it is for the under to cash. Since we are talking about the hitter-friendly ballpark in Colorado, low total really means anything below 11 runs. In this situation, the over record is 280-224-16 (56%).
It has been even more profitable to follow this system late in the season (August-September). Overs have gone 158-100-10 (61%), +50.81 units in this scenario since 2005. One reason why it is more profitable to bet overs late in the season is fatigue. A 162-game season is taxing on players’ bodies and higher elevation makes it harder for players to recover.
On Friday, the Colorado Rockies will continue a four-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers. The total opened 10.5, making it a match for our late season over system.
As the saying goes, nothing lasts forever.
From 2005 to 2015, this system went 154-90-10 (63%), +56.96 units. But since 2016, over bettors are 4-10 (29%), -6.15 units. With all betting systems, it’s important to continue to monitor a system’s success season-to-season as oddsmakers are constantly adjusting in order to negate previously-held edges.
The recent downturn could give bettors pause but this system isn’t the only reason to bet the over. A steam move, an indication of sharp money, was triggered on the over as well. Plus, when these teams have played in Colorado this season we’ve seen fireworks. The over is a perfect 4-0 with the teams going over the total on average by 5.13 runs.
The Bet: Dodgers-Rockies (Over 10.5)
Editor’s note: The opinion on this game is from the individual writer and is based on his research, analysis and perspective. It is independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.