We have a short seven-game slate today, starting early with Guardians vs Tigers at 1:10 PM at Comerica Park on MLB.TV, and closing with Rockies vs Diamondbacks at 9:40 p.m. ET at Chase Field on MLB.TV.
Our experts have analyzed the matchups and found great options for Thursday.
Below are 3 expert MLB best bets today.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent the matchups our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:10 PM | |
  | 4:05 PM | |
  | 9:38 PM | |
 | All Day | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tanner McGrath's Guardians vs Tigers Best Bet
I project around 7.2 runs for this matchup, so I see a tad bit of value on the Under 7.5.
Casey Mize’s season looks legit. He’s running a career-high 19% K-BB, even if his stuff is a little lackluster (89 Stuff+, 4.54 botERA). He might be due for a tad bit of regression, but no more than a run or so (2.43 ERA, 3.66 xFIP).
He’s also pitched much better at home (17.2 IP, 1.02 ERA, .213 wOBA allowed) than on the road (19.1 IP, 3.72 ERA, .325 wOBA allowed) this season.
Joey Cantillo is fine (3.40 ERA, 4.39 xFIP, 10% K-BB). He is a lefty, so that might help neutralize all the Southpaws in Detroit’s lineup (I count five) — although he's shown reverse splits in his career.
However, I really like Cleveland’s bullpen and defense, which should give Cantillo plenty of support.
Of greater importance, the weather in Detroit should be brutal for hitting. We’re expecting double-digit breezes blowing in from left field with temperatures in the high-50s at first pitch. Based on that weather report, BallParkPal projects a -13% run-scoring factor behind a -39% home-run factor for this game.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-110 or Better)
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Evan Abrams's Mets vs Nationals Best Bet
By Evan Abrams
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams:
Weather Watch Unders is a system built for MLB totals bettors who understand how environmental factors quietly shift run production.
This approach keys in on games with moderate to strong winds — especially those blowing in or cross-field — paired with mild to cool temperatures, a known recipe for stifled fly balls and reduced scoring.
When totals open high, but tick down before the first pitch, it signals sharp money reacting to these same weather cues.
This strategy captures overlooked market inefficiencies.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-110 or Better)
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Matt Trollo's Athletics vs Angels Best Bet
By Matt Trollo
Home/Road splits are generally noisier than they are useful, but the exceptions are the few parks at the extremes (Colorado, Sacramento, Seattle, Texas).
Batters pummeled Luis Severino for a .345 wOBA at home last season, his first at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento, while he held them to a .277 mark on the road. All this despite a mere 0.2-point difference in his K-BB rate.
The difference was the 10 home runs he allowed at home, as opposed to six on the road in almost the same number of innings.
While both wOBAs have climbed this season, batters are still more than 50 points better against Severino at home than on the road, with six of the seven home runs he’s surrendered coming in Sacramento as well.
Angel Stadium, which I can’t believe is still called that, is still a slightly positive run (102 Park Factor) and power (103 LH HR Factor, 112 RH HR) park, but a far cry from where the A’s now play their home games.
Additionally, after starting the season poorly, Severino has allowed just 10 runs over his past 30 innings (three road starts plus KC and SF at home) with a more respectable than strong 12.3% K-BB, but just 34.8% HardHit.
Most impressively, Severino has a 2.60 Bot ERA and 116 Pitching+ over this span. That’s top of the league stuff.
He still has estimators mostly not too far below 4.5, and did just allow five runs to the Giants on two home runs last time out, but struck out seven, walked two, and allowed only a single barrel.
My intention is not to try to convince you that Severino is a better pitcher than Jose Soriano at this point in their careers, as I certainly don’t feel that way.
But Soriano has also regressed tremendously from his red-hot start.
While still allowing a respectable 15 runs over his past 32 2/3 innings, Soriano has just one quality start over those six attempts with a 13.4% K-BB and a half-tick drop in velocity from his first four starts.
His 3.94 Bot ERA and 104 Pitching+ during this stretch are still perfectly competent. It’s just not a continuation of the breakout path he set out upon to open the season.
His 17.2% K-BB on the season is still his best mark in three years as a starter, and his 13.7% swinging-strike rate is more than two points better than last season. Still, he’s sacrificed some ground balls (50.7%) by throwing more four-seamers (23.4%) with fewer sinkers (28.4%), yet still retains those walk issues.
Soriano’s 10.9% BB is 0.1 point higher than last year. The lack of quality starts recently isn’t necessarily about giving up so many more runs, but it’s about not being able to finish six innings more than once in those six starts.
Still, I project Soriano as the superior pitcher by more than half a run, but I also project the A’s with a nearly 30-point better wRC+.
In addition to Los Angeles’s league-low 68 wRC+ at home (A’s: 93 on the road), they have posted just an 87 wRC+ against right-handed pitching (A’s: 109), while the projected lineup has just a 75 wRC+ over the past 30 days and 101 wRC+ against right-handed pitching since the beginning of year.
Comparatively, the A’s projected nine boast a 126 wRC+ over the past 30 days, and a 110 wRC+ against right-handed pitching since the beginning of last season.
But offense is not the only edge for the A’s. In fact, it would be much easier to state that starting pitching is the only Angels' advantage.
The visitor’s projected starting lineup leads in BRR (-1 to -4) and FRV (-6 to -16).
The A's also have better bullpen estimators (4.03 FIP/4.30 xFIP/3.83 SIERA) by more than half a run (Angels: 5.13 FIP/4.56 xFIP/4.21 SIERA) over the past 30 days.
While we don’t yet have bullpen usage information from Wednesday night, I’m confident enough in backing the A’s at any dog or even slightly favored price.
Pick: Athletics ML (-110 or Better)
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Sean Zerillo's Full Action App Card for Thursday
Need more picks for Wednesday's all-day action? It's always wise to see what our guy Zerillo is betting on!
Make sure to follow him in the Action App to get all his MLB picks.
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