Blue Jays-Red Sox Betting Preview: Which Chris Sale Will We See vs. Toronto?

Blue Jays-Red Sox Betting Preview: Which Chris Sale Will We See vs. Toronto? article feature image

Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Chris Sale (41).

  • Chris Sale and the Boston Red Sox (-325) face the Toronto Blue Jays on Friday at Fenway Park (7:10 PM ET).
  • In Sale's career, he is 9-4 (69.2%) against the Blue Jays, making Toronto his second-most profitable opponent in his career as a starter.

Betting odds: Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox

  • Blue Jays moneyline: +285
  • Red Sox moneyline: -325
  • Over/Under: 8.5
  • First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET

>> All odds as of Friday afternoon. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets

Chris Sale is having the ultimate “Jekyll and Hyde” season in 2019.

  • He allowed 17 earned runs in his first four starts with only 14 total strikeouts
  • The Red Sox were 0-6 in his first six starts of 2019
  • In those six starts, Sale only averaged five innings pitched per loss

Since Sale’s brutal start to the season, he has been able to get back to his old self, especially recently.

Since May 1, Sale owns a 2.09 ERA in nine starts with 98 strikeouts and a 8.9 strikeout to walk ratio. Sale’s 2.09 ERA since the start of May is the third-lowest mark in the American League and his 98 strikeouts are the most in baseball — so you can say he’s bounced back well since his shaky start to 2019.

In Sale’s last start on the road against the Orioles, Boston was listed as a -305 favorite, just the fourth time in his career he had been listed as a road favorite of -300 or higher.

Since Sale’s first start for the White Sox in 2012, he is 7-3 when listed as a favorite of -300 or higher and his 10 games in that spot are tied for the second-most in baseball in that span with Corey Kluber (10) and way behind the leader, Clayton Kershaw (20).

Many bettors look at that 7-3 record and would move past it quickly. When we look closer at those ten starts, Sale had a 1.27 ERA in 56.2 innings pitched.

So far in 2019, Sale has only faced the Blue Jays once. The game was back in April at Fenway Park and Sale allowed 7 hits and 5 earned runs in only 4 innings pitched. The five earned runs were tied for the most runs Sale has allowed against the Blue Jays in his career.

Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

Overall, Sale has pretty good success against the Blue Jays throughout his career. His teams are 9-4 (69.2%) when he starts against Toronto, but he has actually lost two of his last three home starts against the Jays over the past three seasons.

In Sale’s career, he has profited a bettor $195 (based on $100 wager per game) in 13 starts against the Blue Jays, which is actually his second-most profitable opponent.

Even with Sale’s past success against the Jays and his recent hot streak can you trust him to cover the run line?

Moving back the threshold a bit to increase the sample size, Chris Sale has started 52 games in his career as a favorite of -200 or higher. Sale is 36-16 (69.2%) in those games and of those 36 wins, he has only won by a single run six times, going 30-22 (57.7%) on the .run line in that spot.

The biggest flaw in that 30-22 record on Friday night? Almost all of the damage has come on the road for Sale.

At home: 15-18 (45.5%, -0.7 runs per game, -$510 off $100 per game)
On road: 15-4 (78.9%, +1.9 runs per game, +$628 off $100 per game)

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