The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Boston Red Sox on September 7, 2025. First pitch from Chase Field is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on NESN.
Brayan Bello (3.07 ERA, 146 and 2/3 IP) and the Red Sox will look to snap a three-game skid as they take on the Diamondbacks in a matinee edition of Sunday Night Baseball.
The Diamondbacks have crept loosely into playoff contention with a 12-5 stretch of play and will hope to keep it rolling with Ryne Nelson (3.57 ERA, 131 IP) taking the mound Sunday.
Find my MLB betting preview and Red Sox vs Diamondbacks prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Red Sox vs Diamondbacks Prediction
- Red Sox vs Diamondbacks pick: Diamondbacks ML -110 (Play to -120)
My Red Sox vs Diamondbacks best bet is Arizona's moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Diamondbacks Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 9 -110o / -110u | -115 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 9 -110o / -110u | -105 |
Red Sox vs Diamondbacks Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Brayan Bello (BOS) | Stat | RHP Ryne Nelson (ARI) |
|---|---|---|
| 11-6 | W-L | 7-3 |
| 1.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.7 |
| 3.07 / 4.36 | ERA / xERA | 3.57 / 3.93 |
| 4.08 / 4.26 | FIP / xFIP | 3.72 / 4.01 |
| 1.23 | WHIP | 1.05 |
| 10.1 | K-BB% | 15.5 |
| 49.1 | GB% | 39.2 |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 108 |
| 103 | Location+ | 100 |
Nick Martin’s Red Sox vs Diamondbacks Preview
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview: Missing Key Bats
With only 19 games left to play, the Red Sox' hopes of a division title are on life support, as they trail the Toronto Blue Jays by 4.5 games and are also three games back of the rival New York Yankees. FanGraphs offers the Red Sox only a 2.5% chance of winning the division but a 91.1% chance of earning an AL Wild Card spot.
The Red Sox are currently playing without two key position players: Roman Anthony and Wilyer Abreu. Anthony has slugged .463 with slightly better than average defensive metrics, while Abreu has slugged .486 with elite results defensively.
Since August 1st, the Red Sox rank 17th in offensive wRC+ and 16th in weighted on-base average. They rank 13th in BB/K ratio in that span and 21st in hard-hit rate. They also rank 18th in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching since August 1st.
Bello has enjoyed a nice bounce-back this season, pitching to an ERA of 3.07 across 146 and 2/3 innings pitched. However, the underlying results suggest that Bello's ERA is an overachievement, as he holds an xERA of 4.36 and an xFIP of 4.26 this season.
Bello has dominated where it counts throughout his nine starts since the All-Star break, pitching to an ERA of 2.95 while allowing only five home runs across 55 innings of work.
However, he's allowed an xBA of .274 in that span and a 42% hard-hit rate. His strikeout minus walk rate has dropped to 11.6% throughout those nine starts, and he holds a Stuff+ of 95.
Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview: On a Great Run
It may ultimately be too little too late, but the Diamondbacks are playing out the stretch admirably after a highly disappointing first half of the season. Aside from Corbin Burnes, whose season was cut short after receiving Tommy John surgery, Nelson is the only Diamondbacks starter who has lived up to expectations on a staff that should have been considerably more effective this season.
Nelson has pitched to an ERA of 3.57 and an xERA of 3.93 this season and has remained in comparable form recently.
In 52 and 2/3 innings since the All-Star break, Nelson has pitched to an ERA of 3.42 and holds an xFIP of 3.82. He holds a Stuff+ of 108 and Pitching+ of 106 since the All-Star break, and a strikeout minus walk rate of 19.8%.
The Diamondbacks bullpen has been in solid form recently. It is in excellent shape rest-wise after lengthy outings from Brandon Pfaadt and Eduardo Rodriguez in the last two matchups, which followed an off day on Thursday. Over the last 30 days, Arizona's relievers have pitched to a 10th-ranked ERA of 3.65 across 101 innings of work.
After finishing the 2024 season ranked third in wRC+, the Diamondbacks offense has remained a strength this season, entering tonight's matchup ranked sixth in wRC+. Arizona ranks ninth in wRC+ since August 1st and holds a wRC+ of 102 versus right-handed pitching in that span.
They will be without Lourdes Gurriel, who suffered a season-ending knee injury on September 1st.
Red Sox vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Betting Analysis
This looks like a good spot to back the red-hot Diamondbacks to complete the series sweep in a game priced as a pick-em, as they continue a last gasp for a playoff spot.
While Nelson has not been quite as effective as Bello recently in terms of ERA, he has outperformed him in most key underlying metrics recently, while still achieving solid results where it counts. Arizona's bullpen has also been in solid form recently and is in great shape entering this matchup.
The Diamondbacks have outperformed the Red Sox offensively of late, which is partly due to the fact that the Red Sox lineup is missing two key bats with Abreu and Anthony both sidelined.
Considering the Diamondbacks' recent offensive form and the fact that Nelson arguably appears to be the superior starter, there is value backing Arizona to win this matchup at -110.
Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline (-105, BetMGM)
Moneyline
As outlined, backing the Diamondbacks to win at -110 is my favorite play from this matchup.
Run Line (Spread)
Backing the Diamondbacks to cover the run-line at +180 also appears to provide value.
Over/Under
A total of 9 looks fair for this matchup, and I see no value in betting the total.
Red Sox vs Diamondbacks Betting Trends
