The Minnesota Twins host the Boston Red Sox on April 13, 2026. First pitch from Target Field is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NESN.
The Red Sox are favored by -172 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Twins are +144 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Red Sox vs Twins prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Red Sox vs Twins Prediction
- Red Sox vs Twins Pick: Red Sox ML (-175 or Better)
My Red Sox vs Twins best bet is on Boston to win. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Twins Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +104 | 7.5 -100o / -122u | -172 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -125 | 7.5 -100o / -122u | +144 |
- Red Sox vs Twins spread: Red Sox -1.5 (+104), Twins +1.5 (-125)
- Red Sox vs Twins over/under: 7.5 (-100o / -122u)
- Red Sox vs Twins moneyline: Red Sox -172, Twins +144
Red Sox vs Twins Projected Starting Pitchers
| Garrett Crochet (LHP) | Stat | Bailey Ober (RHP) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | W-L | 1-0 |
| 0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 3.12 / 3.69 | ERA / xERA | 5.27 / 4.19 |
| 2.56 / 2.64 | FIP / xFIP | 3.95 / 5.10 |
| 1.04 | WHIP | 1.24 |
| 24.3% | K-BB% | 5.1% |
| 40.9% | GB% | 29.2% |
| 109 | Stuff+ | 91 |
| 98 | Location+ | 95 |
Red Sox vs Twins MLB Betting Preview
Red Sox vs Twins Picks
While Garrett Crochet's velocity (95.3 MPH and 95.7 MPH in his past two starts) is down a bit from last season (96.4 mph), he also sat between 94.8 and 95.8 MPH in three starts last April.
It seems like he's still ramping up and had an off-day on the road in Houston. Crochet's early strikeout rate – the quickest indicator to stabilize – is nearly in line with both his career and 2025 averages.
Conversely, I remain significantly down on Bailey Ober, whose velocity has tumbled from a career 91.4 MPH to 88.7 this season (90.3 MPH in 2025).
His Stuff+ is down from 97 to 91, and in the early sample, his K-BB has shown a three-year decline from 26.9% to 19.2% and 11.9%, as his swinging-strike rate has fallen from 14.2% to 11.7% and 8.0%.
Ober has a league-average slider and decent command, but everything else in his arsenal is flat and hittable, and if batters are patient, then they can spit at balls and wait for the right pitch to drive, with him throwing at reduced velocity.
I forecast Ober towards the lower end of his FIP range (4.18 to 5.00), which is in line with his early-season xFIP (5.05), meaning there is nearly a two-run projection gap between Ober and Crochet (range 2.78 to 3.01).
Boston also has a superior bullpen.
Moreover, despite the difference in early-season performance (Twins ninth, Red Sox 25th, per wRC+), the two lineups project about the same offensively, given their respective splits (the Twins have a bunch of lefty mashers and project better against southpaws).
However, the Red Sox field a far more competent defensive team and have the advantages nearly everywhere in Monday's matchup.
Pick: Red Sox ML (-175 or Better)
