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The New York Yankees host the Boston Red Sox on September 30, 2026. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NBC/Peacock.
The Yankees are favored by 56 cents on the moneyline and by 1.5 on the run line. The Red Sox are 45 cents on the moneyline, and the total is set at 6.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Red Sox vs Yankees prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction
- Red Sox vs Yankees Pick: Yankees moneyline (56 cents at Polymarket)
My Red Sox vs Yankees best bet is Yankees moneyline on Polymarket. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Yankees Odds
Red Sox vs Yankees Probable Pitchers
| Sonny Gray (RHP, BOS) | Stat | Max Fried (LHP, NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 18-5 | W-L | 5-5 |
| 3.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.5 |
| 2.72 / 3.85 | ERA / xERA | 2.80 / 2.52 |
| 3.47 / 3.68 | FIP / xFIP | 2.65 / 3.59 |
| 15.1% | K-BB% | 16.4 |
| 46.0% | GB% | 49.1% |
| .283 | BABIP | .258 |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 107 |
| 98 | Location+ | 102 |
Red Sox vs Yankees MLB Betting Preview
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview
The Red Sox got shelled in Game 1 of this Wild Card series, and more of the same is likely in Game 2. Right-hander Sonny Gray takes the mound for Boston, and now is a good time to sell high on him.
Yes, he had a fantastic campaign. That said, he struggled to limit hard contact.
This season, Gray ranked in the bottom half of the league in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. That flaw in his pitching is a death sentence against a power-reliant team like the Yankees.
Therefore, it is not surprising that Gray owns a 4.34 ERA over the past three meetings against New York.
New York Yankees Betting Preview
From the other side, the current Yankees roster owns a .425 xSLG in 177 combined plate appearances against Gray. The hitting advantage clearly goes to New York, considering that it finished in the top 10 in runs, home runs, slugging percentage and OPS this season.
By comparison, Boston finished 20th or lower in each of those four key categories. Not only do the Yankees own the hitting advantage, but they also possess the pitching edge with left-hander Max Fried taking the mound.
Through 20 starts this season, Fried posted a 2.80 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. His underlying metrics are even more dominant, with the southpaw owning a 2.51 xERA and a .199 xBA.
Fried also ranks in the 96th percentile or higher in average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Red Sox vs Yankees Pick, Betting Analysis
Fried has dominated Boston throughout his career, a trend that is unlikely to change in Game 2. Through eight career meetings, Fried is 4-1 with a 1.68 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP.
The current Red Sox roster owns a mere .212 xBA and a .302 xSLG in 146 combined plate appearances against Fried. With the better lineup, starting pitcher and home-field advantage, New York is the team to back once again.
Pick: Yankees Moneyline (-125 at Polymarket | Play to -130)
