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The MLB postseason begins today with four games on tap, and we’re breaking down the two best home run picks in every matchup for a total of eight plus-money selections.
Hitters priced at +710, +790, and +900 all make the cut today via PRO home run projections. Data-driven PRO betting models compare projected home run probabilities, individual player performance, and current odds to identify the biggest edges on the board.
This isn’t about chasing long shots for the sake of it. PRO Projections only recommend plays with at least a +3.5% edge, so every pick meets a strict value threshold designed to find the smartest bets, not just trendy names or recency bias.
With four games, eight picks, and every best bet coming back at plus money, today’s postseason slate offers plenty of upside. Let’s get to the best home run bets for every game.
8 Smart MLB Home Run Picks Tuesday
Best Phillies vs. Braves Home Run Picks
Braves: Sean Murphy +900 (Fanduel)
PRO projects Murphy for 0.16 homers, good for a 4.8% edge and the premier grade of matchup
Braves: Ronald Acuna Jr. +460 (FanDuel)
Acuna Jr. ears a healthy 0.25 homer rate today, producing an edge of 4.3%.
Best White Sox vs. Astros Home Run Picks
White Sox: Munetaka Murakami +475 (bet365)
PRO likes the sluggers today in White Sox vs. Astros. Murakami, who drilled 36 homers in the regular season, holds the top edge with a 0.28 homer prediction.
White Sox: Miguel Vargas +450 (bet365)
Vargas, an All-Star this year, also pops. PRO dishes out a strong 0.24 homer forecast in the afternoon matchup.
Best Red Sox vs. Yankees Home Run Picks
Yankees: Ben Rice +500 (bet365)
Rice bashed 41 homers during the regular season and is too good to pass up here. PRO is at 0.25 homers today for Rice, while the market's at 5-1. This produces the largest edge of the day for homers (+5.5%)
Yankees: Paul Goldschmidt +710 (Fanduel)
Goldschmidt also makes the cut. The veteran cranked 18 homers during the regular season. He carries a 0.18 homer calculation vs. the Red Sox.
Best Cubs vs. Padres Home Run Picks
Cubs: Alex Bregman +790 (Fanduel)
At +790 with a 0.17 homer rate today, Bregman is worth the wager. Bregman was on fire to finish the season, smoking 17 of his 28 homers in August and September.
Padres: Manny Machado +450 (bet365)
Finally, consider Machado, who earns a 0.26 homer grade up against +450 odds, good for an actionable, positive edge.
