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The Houston Astros host the Chicago White Sox on September 29, 2026. First pitch from Daikin Park is scheduled for 5:00 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on Peacock.
The Astros are favored by -130 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The White Sox are +110 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and White Sox vs Astros prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
White Sox vs Astros Prediction
- White Sox vs Astros Pick: White Sox Moneyline
My White Sox vs Astros best bet is on Chicago to win the first game of the series. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
White Sox vs Astros Odds
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -188 | 8.5 -100o / -120u | +110 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +158 | 8.5 -100o / -120u | -130 |
- White Sox vs Astros moneyline: White Sox +110, Astros -130
- White Sox vs Astros over/under: 8.5 (-100o / -120u)
- White Sox vs Astros spread: Astros -1.5 (+158 ), White Sox +1.5 (-188)
White Sox vs Astros Probable Pitchers
| Hegen Smith (LHP, CHW) | Stat | AJ Blubaugh (RHP, HOU) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-3 | W-L | 5-3 |
| 0.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 1.29 / 2.45 | ERA / xERA | 3.66 / 4.25 |
| 2.35 / 2.86 | FIP / xFIP | 4.31 / 4.55 |
| 14.7% | K-BB% | 13.0% |
| 43.4% | GB% | 33.5% |
| .291 | BABIP | .253 |
| 108 | Stuff+ | 104 |
| 93 | Location+ | 94 |
White Sox vs Astros MLB Betting Preview
Chicago White Sox Betting Preview
Even though the White Sox enter as the "lower seed", a record of 84-78 was a stark overachievement, and the vibes still feel quite high relative to the Astros, despite blowing a lead in the AL Central. They finished with a +56 run differential and an expected record of 87-75, which suggests that in the regular season they were clearly a superior side.
The obvious concern, and reason that they are underdogs to win the series, is the lack of a high-quality ace, with Houston likely to offer a much more convincing plan in Game 2 in particular.
Manager Will Venable has proven adept at piecing together games with his bullpen this season, although the relief staff did throw more innings than any other team, and some arms such as Sean Newcomb did tail off down the stretch.
It's quite logical that Hagen Smith will open things up for the White Sox, given that the rookie southpaw has pitched to an ERA of 1.29 across 28 innings with a 2.86 xFIP and Stuff+ rating of 108. He is, on paper, the best option to try and match up with Yordan Alvarez, as lefties went. 194/.256/.278 against Smith this season.
As with the Astros, most of the relievers likely to pitch for Chicago in this matchup were quite effective. The greatest concern is the likely need for Erick Fedde to record six or more outs; as though Fedde was effective where it counts, he holds a 4.79 xERA and 4.82 xFIP this season.
The White Sox offense finished the year with the fifth-best wRC+ (105). Their 24.1% strikeout rate is the second-highest of any playoff team, but they did draw walks at a high rate and exhibit some ability to manufacture runs, though the most obvious strength is possessing three 30+ home run hitters.
Venable was able to deploy pinch-hitters quite effectively this season, which could prove to be an interesting wrinkle as he attempts to make it more difficult to bridge the gap to Josh Hader in this matchup.
Houston Astros Betting Preview
While Houston was lucky to even secure a playoff berth, needing to play three meaningful games over the weekend (including Game 162) has come at a cost entering Game 1, even if Chicago finds itself in a similar situation.
The Astros will open things up with AJ Blubagh, who is expected to record 5.4 outs on average by oddsmakers. Blubagh holds a 4.25 xERA and 4.55 xFIP this season, and in 37 of his 64 appearances, he pitched multiple innings.
Their highest-leverage relievers are well-rested entering this matchup, and setup man Bryan Abreu and Josh Hader in particular have both not worked since Thursday.
The Astros finished the regular season with a wRC+ of 107 but were slightly less productive than the Astros in the final two months and the year. The lineup is arguably less balanced than Chicago's, but possessing the best batter in baseball counteracted the White Sox superior depth.
White Sox vs Astros Pick, Betting Analysis
The Astros do possess far more playoff experience than White Sox, but that was the case when a similarly overachieving Tigers side knocked off a superior Houston team in the Wildcard round in 2024. Those thoughts may not actually hold any meaning when thinking about this series, but it's fair to say that the narrative floating around that Chicago could falter due to inexperience also may be irrelevant.
Though the back end of Houston's bullpen is quite intimidating and Fedde's role in this matchup is concerning to me, Venable has proven that he can navigate this type of situation effectively this season, while his ability to effectively deploy pinch-hitters may also prove to be useful in this matchup.
A price of +108 appears to be long enough to take a stab at backing the White Sox, which looks to provide value, and I would bet it down to +103.
There also looks to be value in betting Alvarez's first plate appearance to be a walk/hit by pitch at +450 (DraftKings). The White Sox pitching staff walked Alvarez 27.6% of the time this season, and Smith's main concern is his 14.5% walk rate.
Picks: White Sox Moneyline +108 (FanDuel, Play to +103) | Yordan Alvarez First PA Exact Result Walk/HBP +450 (DraftKings, Play to +425)
