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The San Diego Padres host the Chicago Cubs on September 29, 2026. First pitch from Petco Park is scheduled for 10:00 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on Peacock.
The Padres are favored by -130 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Cubs are +108 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Cubs vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Cubs vs Padres Prediction
- Cubs vs Padres Pick: Over 7 Runs (-119) & Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 H+R+RBI (+117)
My Cubs vs Padres best bets are on the over total runs and on Seiya Suzuki HRR prop line. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page, and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Cubs vs Padres Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -206 | 7 -119o / -102u | +108 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +168 | 7 -119o / -102u | -130 |
- Cubs vs Padres moneyline: Cubs +108, Padres -130
- Cubs vs Padres over/under: 7 (-119o / -102u)
- Cubs vs Padres spread: Padres -1.5 (+168), Cubs +1.5 (-206)
Cubs vs Padres Probable Pitchers
| Matthew Boyd (LHP, CHC) | Stat | Michael King (RHP, SDP) |
|---|---|---|
| 10-5 | W-L | 12-10 |
| 1.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.7 |
| 3.91/4.65 | ERA / xERA | 3.21/4.40 |
| 4.21/4.32 | FIP / xFIP | 4.13/4.34 |
| 11.0% | K-BB% | 11.8% |
| 42.2% | GB% | 44.6% |
| .273 | BABIP | .259 |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 107 | Location+ | 101 |
Cubs vs Padres MLB Betting Preview
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview
We have two below-average rotations featured in this series. The Cubs bulked up their rotation at the deadline, but that hasn't gone super well, and now they find themselves sending Matthew Boyd to the bump for game one.
The lefty finished the season with a 3.91 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. He's a big league pitcher; he can get the job done. But an 11% K-BB% leaves a lot to be desired. Boyd finished his season with 12 innings of two-run ball on seven hits in two starts against the Reds and Marlins. Even in those soft matchups, though, he struck out just seven in those innings.
The out pitch is the changeup, but he has trouble setting it up with his fastball that rarely gets whiffs and gets hit pretty hard. Righties had a nice season against Boyd with an 18% K% and 14 homers. He was tougher on lefties, giving up just one homer against them with a slightly higher strikeout rate.
We will see some quick hooks of the starting pitchers in these three-game Wild Card series. I'd be looking to bet a bunch of pitcher unders. These games are so important, and teams increasingly like their bullpen's chances of getting big outs rather than the starters. If Boyd is cooking, he'll get into the 6th, but I doubt he's doing that against a competent Padres lineup.
Matthew Boyd Under 3.5 Strikeouts stands out to me as a prop. He could come in under that just because he gets in trouble early and gets removed, but it's also possible he throws five innings and only gets 2-3 strikeouts, that's not uncommon for the guy right now and the Padres are a team that hits for contact.
On the Cubs hitting side, we're looking at these hitters for bets; they're the ones who match up best with Michael King. Here are the numbers from my "matchups model" that looks how each player has done against the pitches most like the ones the pitcher they'll see tonight throws.
- Pete Crow Armstrong .413 xwOBA, 17.5% Brl%, 13.6% SwStr%
That's a very high SwStr% for PCA, and this is not a friendly park for hitting homers. A lot of action will go to the MVP tonight, but honestly it's not a very good spot for him.
- Seiya Suzuki: .374 xwOBA, 15.6% Brl% 8.4% SwStr%
That's my "pick to click" right there. Suzuki handles right handed sinkers well. The high Brl% and low SwStr% is what I'd be looking for. Give me Seiya Suzuki for over 1.5 total bags.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
Michael King gave the Padres a healthy season and much-needed volume. He threw 185 innings with a solid 3.21 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. The K% was 21%, the BB% was a tad high at 9.2%, but he held hitters under one home run per nine and earned himself the first start of the postseason.
It's not a very good matchup for King. The Cubs were right there with the Brewers for the league lead in walks and OBP. They're extremely patient, and King isn't a guy who fills up the zone. So I think we'll see some longer innings for King, and I doubt he gives them five innings. The Padres' biggest strength is the bullpen, so they'll not hesitate to get to it in a three-game series.
My King projection: 85 pitches, 5.2 IP, 4.9 H, 2.7 ER, 4.2 SO, 2.8 BB%
I think he's going to walk a couple of Cubs here. Alex Bregman and Michael Busch in particular like to see pitches and take walks, so you could get some action on them to score a run since they're likely to find their way to at least first base for free.
The best matchups for hitters against Boyd:
- Fernando Tatis: .383 xwOBA, 13.2% SwStr%, 17.1% Brl%
- Manny Machado: .381 xwOBA, 14.7% SwStr%, 18.5% Brl%
Other than those two, there's not much popping out. And both of those two have high SwStr% against these types of changeup-heavy lefties.
Cubs vs Padres Pick, Betting Analysis
My lean is to the Padres taking this series. They probably have the slight advantage in starting pitching; they have a much better bullpen, and they're at home. The lineup advantage goes to the Cubs, but not by a ton. I'll take the Padres on the series line.
My projections really like the OVER in this game. Every other game is projected very low-scoring today, but this is the one where we like offense. The Padres bullpen is a problem, but the Cubs will get a couple of looks at Michael King before having to deal with that, and they were not an offense that could be held off the scoreboard during the regular season.
I've got the game going for nine runs with the Padres holding onto a 52% chance to win game one.
Pick: Over 7 Runs (-119) & Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 H+R+RBI (+117)
