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The playoffs have arrived, and we're going to start the Wild Card round with some bangers for White Sox vs Astros, Red Sox vs Yankees, and Cubs vs Padres.
Read on for my 3 MLB Home Run Picks Today.
MLB Home Run Picks Today
In the table below, you'll find each of our Grant Neiffer's top home run prop picks from today's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 5:00 p.m. | |
| 8:00 p.m. | |
| 10:00 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
White Sox vs. Astros MLB Homer Pick
Miguel Vargas
Home Run (+450)
The Astros are rolling with A.J. Blubaugh as the starter, and he is an above-average matchup for righty power. Blubaugh is likely only going a few innings, and then the Astros are rolling with a bullpen game.
The Astros do have a below-average bullpen, and with the White Sox likely rolling out several lefties around Vargas, there's a decent chance he gets a 1-2 at-bats vs. left-handed pitchers.
With the Crawford Boxes, this ballpark is an upgrade for Vargas, and I have the true odds here around +400.
Pick: Miguel Vargas Home Run (+450)
Red Sox vs. Yankees Home Run Pick
Wilyer Abreu
Home Run (+550)
This isn't a bad spot, and these odds are a bit too high.
Cam Schlittler was a great pitcher this season, and while he didn't allow a ton of bombs to lefties, he is due for some negative regression.
This ballpark is a massive upgrade for lefty power and is one of the best ballparks in the league for lefty power.
I have the true odds here around +500.
Pick: Wilyer Abreu Home Run (+550)
Cubs vs. Padres HR Pick
Alex Bregman
Home Run (+760)
This isn't a great spot, but these odds more than make up for it.
Michael King allowed a below-average 0.93 HR/9 to righties this season, but he's due for some negative regression and grades out as an average matchup for righty power.
Bregman has been great since the All-Star Break, with 19 bombs, and I have the true odds here around +600.
Pick: Alex Bregman Home Run (+760)
