If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google.
The New York Yankees host the Boston Red Sox on September 29, 2026. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NBC/Peacock.
The Yankees are favored by -140 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Red Sox are +120 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 6.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Red Sox vs Yankees prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction
- Red Sox vs Yankees Pick: C.Schlittler Over 7.5 Strikeouts +128, 1u | Bet to even
My Red Sox vs Yankees best bet is a prop pick on New York starting pitcher Cam Schlittler. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Yankees Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +163 | 6.5 -102o / -118u | +120 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -199 | 6.5 -102o / -118u | -140 |
- Red Sox vs Yankees moneyline: Red Sox +120, Yankees -140
- Red Sox vs Yankees over/under: 6.5 (-102o / -118u)
- Red Sox vs Yankees spread: Yankees -1.5 (+163 ), Red Sox +1.5 (-199)
Red Sox vs Yankees Probable Pitchers
| Payton Tolle (LHP, BOS) | Stat | Cam Schlittler (RHP, NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-6 | W-L | 14-6 |
| 4.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 6.2 |
| 3.03 / 2.69 | ERA / xERA | 1.95 / 2.85 |
| 3.04 / 3.55 | FIP / xFIP | 2.56 / 2.86 |
| 21.7% | K-BB% | 25.0% |
| 37.3% | GB% | 43.2% |
| .291 | BABIP | .251 |
| 115 | Stuff+ | 113 |
| 100 | Location+ | 102 |
Red Sox vs Yankees MLB Betting Preview
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview
I consider myself very fortunate to draw the best and probably most easily analyzed starting pitching matchup on Tuesday. There are certainly many other roster questions, however, some extremely impactful, which won’t be answered until Tuesday morning.
We begin with the big lefty, Peyton Tolle, who finishes his season with a 3.03 ERA supported by a 21.7 K-BB% (tied with Cristopher Sanchez) and an elite contact profile (6% Barrels/BBE, 34.5 HardHit%).
As such, a 2.70 xERA was Tolle’s best estimator, followed by an ERA matching 3.02 Bot ERA (112 Pitching+), 3.04 FIP, and 3.07 dERA. His most contact-neutral estimators were a bit higher (3.34 SIERA, 3.55 xFIP).
The difference between the xERA and FIP was 15 of his 23 barrels leaving the park, but overall I rate Tolle only about one-tenth of a run worse than actual results, which would make him a top quarter of the league starting pitcher.
Similar to his counterpart, as we’ll discuss, Tolle brings it with the heat, throwing some sort of fastball 87.9% of the time, breaking down to four-seamers (96.1 mph avg) 44.6% of the time, sinkers 24.1% and cutters 19.2% with a few curveballs (9.8%) and changeups (2.8%). Only two LHP with at least 100 innings threw their fastball harder (Luzardo, Skubal).
RHBs will see the fastball more than twice as often as any other pitcher (48%), with sinkers (21%), cutters (17%) and curves (10%) following with just a sprinkling of changeups (4%).
Same-handed batters see four-seamers and sinkers and equal amounts (34%), with nearly as many cutters (24%) plus a few curves (8%).
All of Tolle’s fastballs grade above a 55 Pitching Bot overall mark, with at least a 109 Pitching+.
Interesting that this mixture gave Tolle a reverse split this season, with LHBs hitting for a .308 wOBA, but .271 xwOBA against him and RHBs a .276 wOBA, but .248 xwOBA, not necessarily ideal against these Yankees.
Ironically, Tolle served up a 45-point-lower wOBA on the road, but a 0.62-run-lower xERA at home.
Tolle faced just one batter last post-season and we can’t be sure about new manager Chad Tracy’s post-season tendencies, but while he threw fewer than five innings just four times this season, Tolle only exceeded six innings four times, never reaching the 100-pitch mark and sitting between 82-99 pitches in 22 of his 26 starts.
Facing the Yankees twice this season, both before July, Tolle dominated his Wild Card opponents, throwing 13 innings, allowing just four hits and a run, striking out 18 of 46 batters with just three walks.
Identifying a potential Yankee lineup is where the major questions began to arrive, the largest of the entire post-season likely revolving around a certain giant, Yankee right-handed slugger.
Of course, I’m talking about Giancarlo Stanton, who hasn’t taken an At-Bat since April, but manager Aaron Boone said he could potentially return to the roster for this series, most likely in a limited fashion.
That certainly must relieve a great number of Yankee fans.
Also dealing with an injury and potentially active for this series could be Trent Grisham, who may not start this game even if he’s active. Thankfully, I don’t see much of an overall value difference between he and Spencer Jones, as they were similarly valued offensive and defensive players this year.
Lastly, there’s a chance Aaron Judge could be back for this series, but it’s far from a certainty. If he is back, he certainly won’t be 100%. What kind of an effect will that have on his performance and if he is active, who will he displace in this lineup?
The Yankees would need to open up a DH spot for him. They’re not sitting Paul Goldschmidt (168 wRC+, .274 ISO against LHP) or Ben Rice (117, .206). Would the latter catch, sacrificing strong defense behind the plate?
For now, BARTOLO is projecting Judge out, which is the direction I’ll proceed with. Besides, is a compromised Judge going to be more valuable than the player he replaces, especially if it forces a move for Rice behind the dish?
BARTOLO is projecting five left-handed Yankee bats, which may make some sense against Tolle’s mentioned splits, although it hasn't helped against him for them this year and Austin Wells only posted a 19 wRC+ in 99 PA against LHP this year. Ali Sanchez put up an 87 wRC+ just 43 PA and is of similar defensive value, including being the better of two quality framers.
As it stands, the projected Yankee lineup averages a 109 wRC+ at home, but 121 wRC+ (.205 ISO) vs LHP and 125 wRC+ over the last month.
On caveat, I replaced Amed Rosario in BARTOLO’s projections with Anthony Volpe, who the Yankees suggested could play some 3B this postseason, considering Rosario’s lack of production. We could also see some Jose Cabellero. It’s just another question in this Yankee lineup.
We also have to consider that Spencer Jones’s 210 wRC+ (.278 ISO) in 59 PA against LHP isn’t necessarily real, especially considering the 18 Ks.
On an individual pitch matchup, Rice hit fastballs better than any qualified hitter in either league, which is just another reason you want him in the lineup against this lefty. In small samples, Jones and George Lombard hit cutters well, though the latter really struggled with four-seamers and no other projected Yankees have good overall matchups against what Tolle likes to throw.
In addition to being difficult to hit, Tolle was among the top 5% of pitchers in holding runners with 4 Net Bases Prevented, according to Statcast, with runners taking off on only 0.7% of 697 steal opportunities.
Of course, his catching situation was upgraded at the deadline with Adley Rutschman gunning down 36% of runners, good for 6 Catcher’s CS Above Average, bettered by only two other major league catchers with more than five stolen bases attempted against them.
Perhaps the light-hitting, speedy Caballero is not a quality choice here because the Yankees will be hard-pressed to run on this duo.
Defensively, there’s no question the Red Sox are the best team in the American League.
They accounted for 18 Runs Prevented and 20 OAA as a team with only the Rangers slightly better, but they also only had Rutschman for a couple of months (less if you count his injury).
With he and Ceddanne Rafaela expected to play, that’s 27 FRV (Fielding Run Value) alone. The rest of the projected defense adds 18 more with only Roman Anthony (-1) and Trevor Story (-1) not in the positive and everyone else except Willson Contreras (1) with at least four. With Anthony the likely DH, we can bump that up to a total of 46 FRV on the field for the Red Sox (not counting the pitcher).
In the bullpen is where we ask the second biggest question of this series and the biggest for the Red Sox. What about Garrett Crochet? He hasn’t pitched since April and Tracy was non-committal on Monday when asked about him.
Crochet would be pitching in relief and as with Judge, we have to ask if he’d be compromised in performance and what that effect would be.
However, he’d also certainly be improving a dominant Boston pen which BARTOLO currently ranks 3rd best without him and could be especially effective against a lefty-heavy lineup beside both Aroldis Chapman and Erik Miller. Oh, and the Red Sox may also employ Jake Bennett in bulk relief.
The bigger problem for the Boston bullpen might be getting RHBs out, for which they’ll have Garrett Whitlock, Greg Weissert and probably Bryan Bello in a longer relief role.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Bennett and/or Bello piggyback alternately handed pitchers later in this series or the greater post-season, should the Sox advance so far.
Don’t expect to see many low-leverage guys in a three-game series.
New York Yankees Betting Preview
We start the opposing coverage with the presumptive AL Cy Young winner and the presumptive part is probably too conservative at this point.
Cam Schlittler literally blew away the league with his fastball-heavy approach, on his way to the third-best qualified Yankee starting pitcher ERA in team history (1.95) and the best-qualified American League starting pitcher ERA since 2022.
Of course, the .251 BABIP and 81.7 LOB% are going to be difficult to repeat next year and even the 9.2 HR/FB is a bit light. Plus, a hulking 19% of his runs were unearned.
If we count just his total run average, 2.42 runs per nine would still sit a bit below non-pitch modeling estimators ranging from a 2.56 FIP to a 2.94 SIERA.
I rate him near the upper end of that range, where his xERA (2.85) and xFIP (2.86) also live.
There is some conflict within his pitch modeling. Pitching Bot sees Schlittler as a solid top-of-the-rotation option (3.52 Bot ERA only 15th among 46 qualified starters), while Pitching+ sees him as the Ace his results have shown him to be (114 is 4th).
As mentioned, Schlittler will throw one of his fastballs 89.4% of the time, breaking down to 44.5% four-seamers (98 mph avg), cutters 25.6% of the time and sinkers 19.3%. He’ll throw the curveball 9.8% of the time for a surprise with a handful of sliders (0.9%). The only qualified starter to throw harder will win the NL Cy Young Award.
That further breaks down to RHBs seeing some sort of fastball 91% of the time, while he’ll throw his sinker (13%) about as often as his curve (12%) against LHBs.
The four-seam, cutter and curveball all grade above 55 PB overall and 110 Pitching+.
Schlittler only had a small traditional split with batters from either side of the plate sitting between a .233 and .266 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
We can be fairly confident that Aaron Boone will be willing to let Schlit cook if things are going well, as he famously threw eight innings of shutout ball on 107 pitches in last season’s Wild Card series clinching performance against his hometown team, the Red Sox.
Shlittler faced the Red Sox four times this season, repeating his eight innings in the initial outing, but never finishing six in any of the last three: 24.1 IP – 106 BF – 15 H – 6 R (2 ER) – 9 BB – 22 K
Ironic that 40% of his unearned runs were served up to the Red Sox, but also that he only struck out 20.8% of them with a league-average 12.4 K-BB%.
While we can’t be certain of their level of health, the Boston lineup is expected to be 100% present for maybe the first time all season.
It's Roman Anthony, who missed most of the season, leading off, followed by three guys who have been banged up and frequently out of the lineup since the break: Rutschman, Contreras and Rafaela with Wilyer Abreu and Trevor Story potentially sprinkled in between them.
The bottom of the Boston lineup projects as Jarren Duran, Caleb Durbin and Nick Sogard.
It’s absolutely stunning that Durbin finished the season with a 101 wRC+ after the way he started, but Rutschman (127), Contreras (124), Anthony (119) and Story (108) are the only four projected Red Sox to finish the last month of the season above a 92 wRC+ and Contreras only has 18 PA this month.
This lineup does average a 103 wRC+ (.169 ISO) against RHP, but just 94 on the road and 91 over the last 30 days.
The only Red Sox who have above-average matchups against anything Schlittler throws with any frequency are Anthony and Rutschman, who both hit cutters well, especially the latter. No Boston batter has an overall positive matchup against Schlittler on an individual pitch run value basis when all his pitches are combined.
Schlittler was just as strong as Tolle at holding runners (4 Runs Prevented) with only 0.7% of 896 runners taking off.
On a rare negative note in this writeup, both Wells and Sanchez were below average via Catcher’s CS Above Average with only eight catchers worse than Wells’ -3.
Still, the prospect of Boston batters both reaching base and stealing against Schlittler probably doesn’t frighten anyone, though it may be something to watch once he’s out of the game.
The Yankee defense ranks just 17th at -6 Runs Prevented and -5 OAA. However, the projected lineup has been much better. In fact, it’s a bit of a stars and scrubs situation.
Heliot Ramos (-10), Rice (-4) and Jones (-4) have been poor with Lombard (-2) also below average, but every other projected Yankee has at least 6 FRV, starting with Volpe (6) up to Jazz (8) and Cody Bellinger (8), who was probably the best left-fielder in the league.
Their combined 16 FRV is only one-third the projected Boston defensive total, but still not too shabby, especially with Rice expected to DH if Judge remains out.
BARTOLO only ranks the Yankee bullpen 20th, though adding Rodon and Warren certainly helps and Ryan Weathers could also be in the mix
Brent Headrick has been particularly effective from the left side and was the team’s second-best reliever behind closer David Bednar this season.
If the Yankees can get through this game with just the arms mentioned, they should matchup well with the Red Sox in relief, and that’s a distinct possibility if Schlittler gives them at least six.
Red Sox vs Yankees Pick, Betting Analysis
Utilizing a couple of different weather sources, including BARTOLO, it looks like the upper 60s with hardly any wind at all blowing out to the right is the consensus forecast here, but we also have a day to go at the time of this writing.
The Yankee Stadium run environment is 2% above average (Statcast rolling three-year), which could be knocked down 1-4% using the same weather sources.
BARTOLO has not updated umpire assignments, but Nate Tomlinson has been officially confirmed and appears to be a neutral umpire.
Altogether, we’re expecting a neutral run environment, though Yankee Stadium plays left-handed home runs up 20% and right-handed home runs 15%. I’m not playing any home run props against these pitchers.
I have Schlittler almost exactly one-quarter of a run ahead of Tolle.
I do disagree with BARTOLO slightly in that I see this Yankee lineup as slightly more dangerous against LHP, as well as being better at home than Boston is on the road and much better over the last month of the season, as much as that carries into the post-season, if at all.
I neglected to mention base running in total, but by BRR (Base Running Runs) the Yankee projected lineup has Boston by a sum of 3 to 1. Chisholm Jr. and Duran are the superior base runners in this game at 5 BRR each, though neither has done a lot of getting on base against LHP.
Defense is the biggest Boston edge and I still have to side with them slightly on bullpens, though, as mentioned, if the Yankees play this right, that edge just about entirely disappears.
I’m very much aligned with the totals in this game, be it full game, first five innings or team.
If I squint very hard, I can see just a bit of daylight between my projection and the current offering on Novig of NYY -127 (56%). It’s not an edge I’d push during the regular season, especially with the lineup uncertainty and it goes away just about completely when utilizing the best numbers from only traditional sportsbooks.
There is one perceived edge I will push, though and both the pitcher and the spot make up for one of the very few post-season spots where I would do this.
Schlittler has struck out LHBs (36.4%) more often than RHBs (26.4%) and projecting him to face 23 batters on average, that would be 13/10 with BARTOLO’s projected lineup.
The first 23 batters in said projected lineup average a 23.8 K% against RHP this season. There are four batters in this projected lineup with a 27.5 K% or higher against RHP this year and only one (Duran) can be considered a questionable lineup projection.
Schlittler struck out 31.4% both at home and on the road, so that makes no difference. However, the park gives him a 3% boost with this particular projected lineup structure with weather conservatively forecast to take only 1% back.
Finally, while Tomlinson has little effect on run scoring, he does offer a 6-7% bump in strikeouts, which ends up being the deciding factor here.
I know playing pitcher K prop overs in the postseason is a dicey proposition, but I believe this is one pitcher and spot that merits it. Considering Boston's 2.5 team run total, the expectation should be for Schlittler to pitch deep into this game.
Novig is currently offering 44% (+128), but DraftKings at +120 is fine too, but I'd probably drop to 0.5u in that case. I do want the positive number here, though. I’m not that crazy.
Pick: C.Schlittler Over 7.5 Strikeouts +128, 1u | Bet to +100
