The Toronto Blue Jays host the Boston Red Sox on August 11, 2026. First pitch from Rogers Centre is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SNET.
The Blue Jays are favored by -140 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Red Sox are +123 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Red Sox vs Blue Jays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Prediction
- Red Sox vs Blue Jays Pick: Under 7.5 (-130 or Better)
My Red Sox vs Blue Jays best bet is under 7.5 total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +155 | 7 +105o / -121u | +123 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -187 | 7 +105o / -121u | -140 |
- Red Sox vs Blue Jays moneyline: Red Sox +123, Blue Jays -140
- Red Sox vs Blue Jays over/under: 7 (+105o / -121u)
- Red Sox vs Blue Jays spread: Blue Jays -1.5 (+155 ), Red Sox +1.5 (-187)
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Probable Pitchers
| Patrick Sandoval | Stat | Dylan Cease |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | W-L | 7-5 |
| 0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 4.7 |
| 3.38 / 4.47 | ERA / xERA | 2.28 / 2.69 |
| 4.01 / 4.28 | FIP / xFIP | 2.20 / 2.62 |
| 13.8 | K-BB% | 26.1 |
| 33.3 | GB% | 43.9 |
| .386 | BABIP | .282 |
| 105 | Stuff+ | 107 |
| 96 | Location+ | 99 |
Red Sox vs Blue Jays MLB Betting Preview
Tonight's Red Sox-Blue Jays game is Patrick Sandoval against one of the Cy Young favorites, Dylan Cease.
Hopefully, Cease is carrying that nice long-shot ticket on both him and Yordan Alvarez from the preseason. It feels like the only good calls I've had this year are the long-shot bets on those two guys.
But Cease has been trending up. I believe he's overtaking the lead in terms of the odds board. That changeup that the Blue Jays have had him throwing this year has a .194 expected wOBA and a 53% whiff rate. It was the missing ingredient to tie the room together. It was the rug that tied the room together for his entire arsenal.
And now he's got the slider, which remains elite, alongside the changeup, which is performing even better than the slider. He had a complete-game shutout against these Red Sox back on July 25. Obviously, the Red Sox ended up surging soon after.
The ball percentage is the one thing you worry about with Cease. He can have innings and starts where he's wild, and teams are patient against him and try to wait him out, make him throw pitches in the zone, and he just can't do that.
He's had those issues throughout his career. You know, there's going to be 10 starts a year where guys don't have their command — a third of their starts, they're not going to have their best stuff.
Maybe he doesn't have it tonight. And on those nights, he can be very frustrating to watch, but he largely has avoided those issues this year. He's only done it one or two times, as opposed to 10 times like you would expect for a pitcher throughout the year.
So Cease has been phenomenal. He's been efficient.
Sandoval is the side of the matchup that you'd be a little bit more concerned about. He's carrying a 106 Stuff+ rating coming back off injury, and he's pitched pretty well along with it. A 14% strikeout-minus-walk rate is above the major league average. He hasn't really gotten barreled up despite allowing a decent number of fly balls.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Pick, Betting Analysis
Adley Rutschman is coming back for the Red Sox tonight. He's a little bit better of a defender behind the plate for them because I do not like Connor Wong at all. He rates among my worst defensive catchers.
Rutschman is a good hitter and projects as an even better defender than he is a hitter. So that actually helps keep the team total and the game total under a little bit more.
I make this total about 6.7. I'd bet under 7.5 to -130, or I'd take under 7 to -105 between the Jays and the Red Sox.
Two excellent defensive teams as well. We don't really talk about that a ton, but these teams both rate extremely highly in my model. Neither team has major power. Both rate as very good contact teams, but not massive power teams for me.
So hopefully, a bunch of balls in play are getting swallowed up on either side, and both pitchers keep this one low-scoring.
The main concern here on the Jays' side: Louis Varland and Tyler Rogers may both be out tonight at the back end of their bullpen. I believe they've pitched the last two days, maybe two of the past three days for each of them.
So the Jays' bullpen behind Cease is a little bit worrisome, but as long as Cease is efficient, as long as he's not having one of those starts where he's throwing a lot of pitches outside of the zone, I do like this game total to stay under.
The Red Sox have my number one bullpen.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-130 or Better)
