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The Atlanta Braves host the Philadelphia Phillies on September 29, 2026. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NBC/Peacock.
The Braves are favored by -196 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Phillies are +164 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 6.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Phillies vs Braves prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Phillies vs Braves Prediction
- Phillies vs Braves Pick: Under 6.5 (+102; Play to 6)
My Phillies vs Braves best bet is on the under total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page, and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Phillies vs Braves Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -142 | 6.5 -124o / 102u | +164 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +118 | 6.5 -124o / 102u | -196 |
- Phillies vs Braves moneyline: Phillies +164, Braves -196
- Phillies vs Braves over/under: 6.5 (-124o / +102u)
- Phillies vs Braves spread: Braves -1.5 (+118), Phillies +1.5 (-142)
Phillies vs Braves Probable Pitchers
| Jesus Luzardo (LHP, PHI) | Stat | Chris Sale (LHP, ATL) |
|---|---|---|
| 14-5 | W-L | 14-9 |
| 5.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 5.8 |
| 2.86/2.83 | ERA / xERA | 2.16/2.97 |
| 2.78/2.94 | FIP / xFIP | 2.29/2.82 |
| 23.2% | K-BB% | 26.1% |
| 48.6% | GB% | 44.8% |
| .292 | BABIP | .304 |
| 110 | Stuff+ | 118 |
| 103 | Location+ | 109 |
Phillies vs Braves MLB Betting Preview
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
Jesus Luzardo will take the ball in game one for the Phillies. On paper, that's a good thing since he owns a career-best 2.85 ERA with a 2.83 xERA and 2.78 FIP. However, Luzardo has thrown just one inning since September 7th due to an injury.
What can Philly expect from him? Who knows? That's the beauty of the playoffs. Luzardo's last full outing was a complete-game shutout with nine strikeouts against this same Braves team.
Phillies manager Don Mattingly clarified that Luzardo is the "opener". Given that it's the playoffs, Luzardo could probably pitch between 1 and 4 innings. If it's a shorter stint, expect Andrew Painter to fill multiple innings. He was solid upon returning to the bigs, posting a 3.28 ERA in September.
Philadelphia nearly missed the playoffs entirely, and its offense is fully to blame. The bats went ice cold in September, posting an 81 wRC+ — the second-worst in MLB. Adding injury to insult in this case, Luis Arraez is out for this series with an ankle injury.
It all comes down to Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper hitting well — and neither did in September. Schwarber had a 99 wRC+ with five homers, and Harper had a 98 wRC+ with two homers. When the Phillies got hot in the middle of the year, it was due to Schwarber going on one of his crazy hot.
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview
Very few players have aged as gracefully as Braves hurler Chris Sale. At 36 years old, Sale turned in one of his best seasons, posting a 2.16 ERA with a 2.97 xERA and 2.26 FIP. He's also averaging 96.2 mph on his fastball, the hardest since his rookie year, as a reliever. That's led to an 11 K/9 and a career-best 0.55 HR/9.
The Braves should expect seven innings from Sale, leading to Robert Suarez and Raisel Iglesias in the final two frames.
Offensively, the Braves have struggled in the biggest month of the year as well. They rank 23rd in MLB with an 88 wRC+ and rank 12th with 30 homers. I'd consider that number to be an important edge for Atlanta, as home runs are king in the postseason.
It's been nice to see Ronald Acuna Jr. finally start playing well again, leading Atlanta with a strong 130 wRC+ and seven homers. However, the Braves have gotten poor production from Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, and Austin Riley, which makes them susceptible to some clunkers in September.
Phillies vs Braves Pick, Betting Analysis
In all, this feels like a budding pitcher's duel. Sale should shut down the Phillies, who struggle to hit lefties and are limping into the playoffs.
While Luzardo is pitching, he should contain the Braves, but Painter and the Phillies pen will need to add in some clean frames to hit the under.
Pick: Under 6.5 (+102; Play to 6)
