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Brewers vs. Cardinals MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: St. Louis Worthy of Price as Home Favorite (Friday, August 12)

Brewers vs. Cardinals MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: St. Louis Worthy of Price as Home Favorite (Friday, August 12) article feature image

Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images. Pictured: Giovanny Gallegos

  • The Cardinals are significant home favorites in tonight's series opener against the Brewers.
  • Jordan Montgomery makes his second start for St. Louis, while Eric Lauer toes the rubber for Milwaukee.
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.

Brewers vs. Cardinals Odds

Brewers Odds+135
Cardinals Odds-160
Over/Under7.5 (-115/-105)
Time8:15 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Friday night is the start of a big series between the Cardinals and the Brewers. St. Louis has won eight of its last 10 games to take a half-game lead over Milwaukee in the National League Central division.

This comes after Milwaukee held the division lead throughout the first half of the season.

The Brewers have lost six of their last 10 games and traded away All-Star closer Josh Hader at the trade deadline, a confusing move even among Brewers players.

These two teams are 6-6 against each other this year and have six more matchups left. Friday is the first of three this weekend. Who will ultimately get the job done and take home the victory?

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Are Brewers Undervalued?

While the model I use doesn't love the Brewers here, intuitively I was a little surprised to see them listed at +140.

The Brewers and Cardinals have played very close games this year. Not only is their head to head record 6-6, but St. Louis has a +4 run differential in those games, which shows how evenly matched these two teams have been.

The Brewers are on the road here, but they're 31-28 on the road this year. Milwaukee is 11th in all of baseball averaging 4.59 runs per game on the road this year.

Jordan Montgomery will be making his second start for the Cardinals. Montgomery has allowed a .163 ISO to right-handed batters this season and Milwaukee has plenty of power in the lineup as Willy Adames, Andrew McCutcheon, Mike Brosseau and Hunter Renfroe each have ISOs above .200 against left-handed pitching this season.

Montgomery threw five scoreless innings against his former team the Yankees in his first start for the Cardinals, which was also at home.

Cardinals Tough Matchup for Lauer

Eric Lauer has been exceptional for the Brewers recently. In three of his last four starts, Lauer has allowed just one earned run while completing at least five innings.

He's faced the Cardinals twice already this year and is 1-1, taking the loss and allowing five earned runs in the most recent game.

St. Louis is seventh in all of baseball averaging 4.84 runs per game at home this year. The Cardinals are 35-20 at home this season.

Lauer has allowed a .205 ISO to right-handed hitters this season and in general seems due for negative regression as he has a 3.59 ERA and 4.77 xFIP.

The Cardinals have plenty of power in the lineup as Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Albert Pujols, and Paul DeJong all have ISOs above .200 against left-handed pitching this season.

Brewers-Cardinals Pick

While this isn't a fun pick because the odds are juiced a bit on the Cardinals, I'm really not seeing the argument for going with the Brewers at this point in the year.

The Cardinals have been rolling recently as the return of Paul DeJong and additions to the rotation Montgomery and Jose Quintana have fit their club nicely. St. Louis has also been tremendous at home and they figured out Lauer the last time they faced him pushing across five runs.

I'm gonna hold my nose and take the Cardinals at -165 on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Pick: Cardinals ML (-165)

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