Brewers vs. Giants Odds, Preview, Prediction: San Fransisco Offense Coming Back to Earth
Justin K. Aller/Getty Images. Pictured: Eric Lauer
Brewers vs. Giants Odds
|Time||3:45 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of 1 a.m. ET and via DraftKings.|
The Giants recent slide has opened the door for the Dodgers to take control of the NL West. San Francisco lost two of three to Atlanta and then dropped the first three games of the series with the NL Central-leading Brewers. Now the Giants lead is gone and they’re in second for the first time since April. San Francisco is certainly looking ahead to a pivotal series this weekend against the Dodgers.
First, though, the Giants need to try to avoid getting swept at home. San Francisco turns to breakout right-hander Logan Webb, while the Brewers counter with lefty Eric Lauer. Milwaukee has all but clinched the NL Central at this point, but they now have a shot to grab the top overall seed in the league if it finishes the season on a winning run.
The Brewers’ three aces at the top of the rotation have garnered most of the attention, but Lauer has quietly had a very solid season at the back end of the rotation. He’s posted the best ERA (3.61) and xERA (4.17) of his career. His five-pitch mix keeps batters off balance and avoid hard contact despite not having elite velocity or spin rate numbers. He doesn’t strike out or walk a ton of guys, meaning balls in play, but Milwaukee has among the league’s best defenses.
His 4.26 FIP suggest he’s probably been a bit fortunate with balls in play and runners on base, but the left-hander is more than capable of providing five solid innings before turning it over to one of the league’s best bullpens.
Milwaukee’s bullpen is fifth in MLB in xFIP, fifth best in ERA and has shut down the Giants throughout this series. The Brewers pitching across the board is a force and is running into a Giants lineup running very cold at the moment.
San Francisco Giants
The Giants lineup hasn’t scored more than three runs all week. Gabe Kapler has mixed and matched lineups, trying to find the solution to the sudden drop-off in offense. Five losses in six has surrendered their division lead. They haven’t been hitting with runners in scoring position and their power numbers are way down. Both can be attributed to playing the Brewers elite pitching staff.
Webb will try to salvage one game from the series on Friday, and the third-year starter has been excellent in the middle of the San Francisco rotation. His 2.65 ERA and 3.38 xERA suggest he’s been a bit lucky, but his strikeout, walk and hard hit numbers are all indicative of a well above average pitcher this year.
Like the Brewers, the Giants bullpen has been much among the league’s elite and that contributes to the under position here. San Francisco’s 3.18 bullpen ERA is second best in baseball.
With the Giants lineup falling into some long overdue home run regression this week, their offense has struggled to produce runs. That’s unlikely to change on Thursday against a soft contact pitcher in Lauer. And Webb’s breakout third season should keep this game low scoring as well. Our Action Network PRO Report projects this game at 7.4 runs, but I’m willing to take a shot on a small edge at under 7.5, but only at -110 or better.
Since the Giants are a sizable home favorite, there’s the built in under edge of likely not having a bottom of the ninth inning.
Pick: Under 7.5 runs (-110 or better)