Thursday MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Brewers vs. Reds Betting Preview (June 10)
John Fisher/Getty Images. Pictured: Freddy Peralta.
Brewers vs. Reds Odds
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After splitting the first two games of their midweek series, the Brewers are narrowly favored to win the final game of the set on Thursday afternoon.
Both teams have been hot recently. Cincinnati is 7-3 in their last 10 games while Milwaukee is 8-2. The Brewers are in second place in the NL Central with a 34-27 record while Cincinnati has a 29-30 record.
Both teams are built completely differently. The Reds have a strong lineup but questionable starting pitching. The Brewers have one of the league’s best starting rotations right now with a mediocre lineup. So will pitching or hitting prevail?
Brewers’ Peralta Quietly Having Stellar Season
Most casual fans can’t name many pitchers in Milwaukee’s rotation. Even Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff are virtually unknown outside of baseball nerds like me and people who live in the Badger state. One Brewer starter who is even more unknown than Burnes and Woodruff despite having a great season is Freddy Peralta.
Going into the season, Peralta had been primarily a long reliever for Milwaukee. This season Peralta has been elevated to the starting rotation where he has shined. Peralta has a 6-1 record with a 2.25 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and 12.94 strikeouts per nine innings. Even when you look at his “nerd stats” Peralta has a 3.34 xFIP and a 1.8 WAR.
Backing up Peralta is a Brewers lineup that has been woeful this season. Milwaukee is averaging 3.93 runs per game, which is the ninth worst in the league. Only C Omar Narváez and OF Avisaíl García have exceeded their preseason expectations.
Outside of those two, Brewers hitters have been disappointments, particularly OF Christian Yelich and 1B Daniel Vogelbach. If Peralta cannot perform on Thursday, then the Brewers lineup likely won’t do enough to win on its own.
In Cincinnati, every pitcher is a disaster waiting to happen. There are plenty of examples of pitchers who used to be reliable who then without warning fell apart.
One of those pitches is Luis Castillo. In his first four MLB Seasons, Castillo had an xFIP each year between 2.82 and 3.69. This season Castillo has fallen off a cliff worse than if he was trying to fail at playing Laura Croft Tomb Raider.
Currently, Castillo has a 2-8 record with a 6.63 ERA, and a 4.24 xFIP. Even though Castillo has an xFIP more than two runs lower than his ERA, showing he’s due for some better luck ahead, his performance has fallen flat this season. Castillo is also averaging fewer than five innings per start which puts more stress on Cincy’s bullpen.
Backing up Castillo is a Reds lineup that has been one of the leagues best. Currently, the Red Legs are averaging 4.88 runs per game which is the seventh best in the league and the third best in the National League.
The biggest reason why Cincinnati has done well offensively have been outfielders Nick Castellanos and Jesse Winker. Both outfielders may not be household names outside of Cincinnati, but Castellanos has a 3.0 WAR, which is the fifth best in the league.
I’m on the Brewers today because I like Freddy Peralta more than this Reds lineup at the moment. And Luis Castillo could easily have another awful outing on Thursday.
I’m going to try and wait for a better price as the -120/-125 in the market isn’t quite good enough. I’ll bet the Brewers at -110 or better.
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline if -110 or better.