Cardinals vs Reds MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Target This Total-bases Prop Bet (Monday, August 29)
Brandon Sloter/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Lars Nootbaar
Cardinals vs. Reds Odds
|Over/Under||9.5 (-105 / -115)|
|Time||6:40 p.m. ET|
|Odds via WynnBET. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The St. Louis Cardinals will look to avoid a potential letdown Monday as they take on the lowly Cincinnati Reds after triumphing to a series win with Sunday’s 6-3 win over the Braves on Sunday Night Baseball and now leading the NL Central by six games.
At the complete opposite end of the spectrum are the Reds, who lost to the Nationals on Sunday and now hold a 50-76 record.
Cincinnati will look to veteran Chase Anderson in this spot. They’re massive underdogs with the red-hot Cardinals starting Miles Mikolas.
Will the Cardinals build upon what has been a stellar month of August?
Cardinals’ Goldschmidt and Arenado Finally Get Help
St. Louis has posted a ridiculous 20-6 record so far throughout the month of August and has quietly entered the discussion as a legitimate contender out of the NL.
The Cardinals have had the best offense in baseball during that time by a decent margin with a shocking team wRC+ of 149, and .379 woba.
Early in the season, the Cardinals lineup was notably top-heavy and relied heavily upon the duo of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado.
Over the last month, however, the Cards have seen steady contributions from all across the lineup, as you would expect looking at the ridiculous run of production.
Lars Nootbaar has continued to show well as the season has progressed, gathering big league experience. The 24-year-old has been hot over the last 12 games with four homers and a .325 batting average.
Nootbaar has been spectacular against right-handed pitching altogether this season with a .523 SLG rate, and he should draw a good spot in the lineup as he looks to stay in fine form.
Miles Mikolas has put together another notably strong campaign for the Cardinals, though his xERA of 3.74 and xFIP of 3.81 do suggest he has run with some favorable luck so far.
Mikolas has pitched to a fair amount of contact this season, and a 10.6% HR/FB rate has surely helped his ERA. But a matchup at Great American Ball Park could be a dangerous spot to see that mark regress.
Reds’ Offensive Woes Continue
Chase Anderson is likely to return to the big leagues for this contest, having managed horrific numbers in 2021 with a 6.75 ERA and 5.62 xERA (and worse numbers in 2020 if you want to look at a bigger sample).
Anderson has pitched to a 4.50 ERA throughout 80 innings in Triple-A this season, with a concerning WHIP of 1.32.
As you would expect the Reds bullpen doesn’t feature a ton of strong arms, and over the last month, Cincinnati’s relievers hold a fourth-worst xFIP of 4.35 with an ERA of 4.81.
Offensively the Reds have regressed offensively of late, with a wRC + of just 80 throughout the month of August.
Plus, the loss of Brandon Drury via trade surely hasn’t helped the numbers of what was already a poor offense.
Heading into the final stretch of the regular season, we are beginning to see more and more massive favorites of greater than -200, and unsurprisingly this contest is no different.
Yet, should this matchup settle as Anderson starting for the Reds against a Cardinals lineup featuring all of its top pieces, I still am surprised the Cardinals aren’t -220 or greater.
Numbers wise I am not sure how a lineup featuring all top Cardinals won’t end up a heavier favorite. The -130 runline seems a decent look, yet I am a little weary of taking them in this spot and not overly high on Mikolas moving forward this season.
Nootbaar has been spectacular against right-handed pitching and could certainly continue that trend against a soft righty on Monday, at a very favorable hitters park. So I do feel good about looking for him to generate at the plate Monday.
At +120 I believe we have a good price to back Nootbaar to go over his total bases prop of 1.5, assuming he remains near the top of the lineup as we saw over the weekend.
Pick: Lars Nootbaar Over 1.5 Total Bases +120