The Miami Marlins host the Chicago Cubs on May 20, 2025. First pitch from LoanDepot Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on MARQ.
The Marlins enter this game at 19-27 as a +115 moneyline underdog, while the 28-20 Cubs are a -135 moneyline favorite. Chicago is also the favorite on the run line (-1.5). The over/under is set at 8.5 runs.
Let's analyze the MLB odds and make our Cubs vs Marlins prediction and MLB picks.
Cubs vs Marlins Picks and Predictions
- Cubs vs Marlins Picks: Over 8.5 (-110, BetMGM)
My Cubs vs Marlins best bet is on the Over. Check our live MLB odds page to find the best odds.
Cubs vs Marlins Odds & Game Information
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -135 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +115 |
Cubs vs Marlins Projected Starters
| RHP Jameson Taillon (CHC) | Stat | LHP Ryan Weathers (MIA) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | W-L | 1-0 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.0 |
| 4.53 / 4.61 | ERA / xERA | 1.80 / 4.80 |
| 5.35 / 3.79 | FIP / xFIP | 4.30 / 3.15 |
| 1.11 | WHIP | .60 |
| 16.3% | K-BB% | 22.2% |
| 36.7% | GB% | 33.3% |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 114 |
| 112 | Location+ | 101 |
Cubs vs Marlins Betting Insights
Here’s your I-cannot-believe-that-is-a-real-stat statistic of the day:
That’s shocking for a Fish lineup that’s certainly below-average. Then again, the Marlins have a poor rotation (4.27 xFIP, 23rd), a bottom-of-the-barrel bullpen (4.65 xFIP, 28th), and a ballpark with a super-rangy outfield (102 Park Factor over the past three seasons, sixth in MLB; 108 Double Factor, eighth).
Miami starter Ryan Weathers, who looks like a breakout candidate, is not included in that poor rotation.
He’s only made one start, but he shut down these Cubs last week, dealing out five one-run innings behind five strikeouts on 10 whiffs. He picked up an extra tick on his fastball (97.4 MPH, 110 Stuff+), tightened up his sweeper (84 MPH, 122 Stuff+), and added some extra drop on his changeup (87 MPH, 118 Stuff+).
All that said, Weathers allowed two barrels and five hard-hit balls in the outing, but only two fell for hits (a Seiya Suzuki solo homer and a Justin Turner Single; .091 BABIP), and he stranded every runner.
I suspect that Weathers overperformed slightly in his season debut. And, now that the back-in-action adrenaline has worn off, we could see a velocity decrease back to typical Weathers levels.
It’s also always difficult to battle a lineup in two consecutive starts, especially when it’s the Cubs, who rank second among MLB lineups in wRC+ against left-handed pitching (133).
It might be a good time to sell high on the breakout candidate.
And if he’s still not fully stretched out — he tossed only 76 pitches in his debut — the Marlins will again have to lean on their bottom-five bullpen to eat up half the game.
Again, the Marlins’ lineup is below-average, but the bats have been hot lately, posting a 109 wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the past two weeks (12th among MLB lineups during the stretch).
Keep an eye on Kyle Stowers, the 27-year-old outfielder who has posted a 164 wRC+ this month behind six homers in 16 games. He ranks sixth among MLB hitters in barrels with 25, trailing only Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Pete Alonso, Cal Raleigh and Corbin Carroll.
I’d be willing to back Stowers and Co. against Jameson Taillon, the righty who has posted some contradicting underlying metrics but ultimately projects out as a mid-4.00s ERA and FIP guy.
Behind Taillon, Chicago’s bullpen has been nearly as bad as Miami’s this season (4.47 xFIP, 24th), and the unit is far from well-rested. Porter Hodge hit the IL recently, while each of Ryan Pressly, Brad Keller, Drew Pomeranz and Daniel Palencia have pitched at least twice in the past three days.
Ultimately, I believe Weathers is overvalued and Chicago’s bats should see more success with another try at the lefty. Meanwhile, I have no issues backing the somewhat-hot Fish bats, and no problems fading two questionable, extended bullpens. And LoanDepot Park isn’t a bad place to bet the Over.
Cubs and Marlins games have gone a combined 56-35-3 to the Over this season. I’ll bank on more of the same for Tuesday.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Moneyline
I'll pass on the moneyline.
Run Line/Against The Spread
I'll pass on the spread.
Over/Under
I'll take the Over in this ballgame between two "high-scoring" squads.
