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The Houston Astros host the Chicago White Sox on September 30, 2026. First pitch from Daikin Park is scheduled for 5:00 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on Peacock.
The Astros are favored by -152 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The White Sox are +128 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and White Sox vs Astros prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
White Sox vs Astros Prediction
- White Sox vs Astros Pick: Under 7.5 (-111) | Play to Under 7 (-105)
My White Sox vs Astros best bet is on the under total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page, and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
White Sox vs Astros Odds
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -172 | 7.5 -108o / -112u | +128 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +142 | 7.5 -108o / -112u | -152 |
- White Sox vs Astros moneyline: White Sox +128, Astros -152
- White Sox vs Astros over/under: 7.5 (-108o / -112u)
- White Sox vs Astros spread: White Sox +1.5 (-172), Astros -1.5 (+142)
White Sox vs Astros Probable Pitchers
| Sean Burke (RHP, CHW) | Stat | Hunter Brown (RHP, HOU) |
|---|---|---|
| 11-7 | W-L | 6-4 |
| 3.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.9 |
| 3.34/3.78 | ERA / xERA | 3.19/3.31 |
| 3.62/4.00 | FIP / xFIP | 3.77/3.54 |
| 17.2% | K-BB% | 15.3% |
| 34.9% | GB% | 57.0% |
| .283 | BABIP | .272 |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 104 |
| 101 | Location+ | 95 |
White Sox vs Astros MLB Betting Preview
Chicago White Sox Betting Preview
The White Sox gave it all they had on Tuesday to take a 1-0 series lead over the Astros, and now they'll be hoping for a big start out of Sean Burke on Wednesday with much of the bullpen taxed.
Chicago went with Grant Taylor for a hefty 54 pitches in Game 1, almost certainly taking its best bullpen arm out of the equation for Game 2, and with long man Davis Sandlin throwing 22 pitches and Jordan Hicks tossing 17, the path to victory surely includes plenty of quality innings from Burke.
That's more or less what the right-hander has been good for this season, too. He's completed at least seven innings in five of his 32 outings and six in 15 of those 32. He's also had a great track record against the Astros this season, tossing 11 2/3 innings of two-run ball, striking out 10 in one July start, and running a 6:4 K:BB across 5 2/3 one-hit innings in September.
It makes perfect sense, too, because of the way Burke pitches. Houston finished fourth this season in OPS to ground-ball pitchers but just 23rd against fly-ballers, and Burke runs one of the lowest ground-ball rates around at 35.9% coupled with a high Pull Air% at over 20%.
That's amounted to a nice and friendly .228 xBA in his 172 1/3 innings this season, and while the .373 xSLG is elevated it's still below league average and well below the average for a fly-ball type. He's also made a point of increasing the strikeouts this season, running a 25.8% clip, and while he's had his issues with walks — particularly against the Astros — Houston has found it hard to get runners on base in a hurry against him.
Houston Astros Betting Preview
The Astros will counter with Hunter Brown, who is undeniably the best person you could task with saving your season if you're Houston.
His season was abbreviated by injury, but the results have still been there. He finished September with a 2.73 ERA, striking out 38 batters in 26 1/3 innings, bringing his punchout rate up to 27.5% for the season. Of course, in his 107 1/3 innings, Brown had his warts, but they really just came in the form of a 12.2% walk rate and the occasional home run.
As a ground ball pitcher, producing a worm-burner at an insanely high 57.1% clip, Brown will pound the zone and can give up some hard-hit balls. The vast majority have been friendly for his fielders, however, given his exceptional expected stats, though his infield has ranked 23rd in Outs Above Average which has only inflated his already-solid results.
The White Sox are ranked 16th in OPS to ground-ball pitchers, nine spots below their ranking in the reverse split, but one area they could certainly exploit Brown is the walk — given they've drawn one in a hefty 10.3% of plate appearances in the second half. Brown did make it through a winner the last time he squared off with the White Sox, spinning six innings of two-run ball with seven strikeouts and just two walks, so take that edge with a grain of salt.
The last thing worth mentioning here is the Astros' bullpen, which used every member except for long-men Peter Lambert and Tatsuya Imai. I don't think Houston would be too keen on using either guy in an elimination game, unless of course the lead is insurmountable, though it wouldn't appear anyone outside of Miguel Ullola and Josh Hendrickson is unavailable here. Still, though, those guys did pitch OK — so if they're unable to go this bullpen could look a bit shakier.
White Sox vs Astros Pick, Betting Analysis
I am trying to talk myself into the White Sox here, but the fact is that it's hard to trust them if the threat of the home run won't really be there. Brown allows very few, and as a ground-baller he's going to press Chicago to pile up hits and walks to beat him rather than coming up with a few big swings.
I don't think that's a great gameplan for Chicago, nor do I like the way the bullpen is looking without Taylor. Still, the White Sox should have enough fresh arms behind Burke, who is an innings-eater, and with Brown's good outlook the task at hand for Houston's stable may not be all that tall.
An elimination game Under feels like a cop-out, but in this case it feels like a steal. This number is inflated thanks to Burke's inexperience in this spot and the number of relievers used on Monday. I say you take it.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-111) | Play to Under 7 (-105)
