The Chicago White Sox host the Cincinnati Reds on August 13, 2026. First pitch from Rate Field is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on CINR.
The White Sox are favored by -134 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Reds are +124 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Reds vs White Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Reds vs White Sox Prediction
- Reds vs White Sox Pick: White Sox ML (-135, 1.35u) | Bet to -160
My Reds vs White Sox best bet is on Chicago to win. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Reds vs White Sox Odds
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -184 | 8.5 -102o / -120u | +124 |
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +152 | 8.5 -102o / -120u | -134 |
- Reds vs White Sox moneyline: Reds +124, White Sox -134
- Reds vs White Sox over/under: 8.5 (-102o / -120u)
- Reds vs White Sox spread: White Sox -1.5 (+152), Reds +1.5 (-184)
Reds vs White Sox Probable Pitchers
| Andrew Abbott | Stat | Davis Martin |
|---|---|---|
| 6-7 | W-L | 9-6 |
| 1.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.7 |
| 3.92 / 4.75 | ERA / xERA | 4.17 / 4.58 |
| 4.68 / 4.85 | FIP / xFIP | 3.48 / 3.94 |
| 6.8 | K-BB% | 13.5 |
| 42 | GB% | 42.5 |
| .267 | BABIP | .323 |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 90 |
| 98 | Location+ | 94 |
Reds vs White Sox MLB Betting Preview
Reds vs White Sox Pick, Betting Analysis
It’s four quality starts for Andrew Abbott in his last six, but only twice with fewer than three runs and an overall 4.01 ERA over this span, with all non-FIP estimators even higher.
His 3.92 ERA on the season is at least three-quarters of a run below all estimators, ranging from a 4.66 Bot ERA (93 Pitching+) to a 5.11 dERA.
Has Abbott beaten his estimators in the past? Yes.
However, this season is the furthest he’s ever been from his xERA (4.75) and SIERA (5.02). His 6.8 K-BB% is his first time in single digits.
It truly has been smoke and mirrors for Abbott this year, with RHBs owning a .320 wOBA, but .360 xwOBA against him.
The projected White Sox lineup (via BARTOLO) includes four batters above a 135 wRC+ against LHP and four below 85, with Munetaka Murakami (102) in between. It’s an average 102 wRC+ and .181 ISO against RHP, 104 over the last 30 days and 103 on the road without any super small samples, other than what the short half of a platoon normally sees in a season. In other words, we’re not projecting anyone for the White Sox who has come late to the party.
The defense behind Abbott is projected to be average (-2 FRV – Fielding Run Value), while the bullpen is a surprise among the top third of the league over the last month with a 3.71 FIP, 4.05 xFIP and 3.59 SIERA, though BARTOLO ranks Cincinnati the 2nd-worst relief unit in the league without a single reliever registering a wFIP below four.
Perhaps it was a mercy that Davis Martin’s last start was cut to one inning by rain. He’s endured a 6.44 ERA over his last 14 starts with at least four runs in half of them, but his 4.66 xFIP during this stretch is still better than Abbott’s on the season (4.85).
Abbott has the better contact profile, but even over the last month, Martin’s SIERA is 0.86 runs better.
The first four batters in the projected Cincinnati lineup range from a 105 wRC+ to a 123 wRC+ against RHP this year, with only one (Bleday 123) above 107. Nobody else reaches 90, and three sit no higher than 65, including Ke’Bryan Hayes at…I believe that number is a ZERO.
On average, it’s a 78 wRC+ and .155 ISO against RHP, and remember they play half their games in one of the most power-friendly parks in the league, along with an 85 wRC+ over the last 30 days and 78 on the road.
The projected defense behind Martin is also average (4 FRV), with a bullpen that basically swapped out Seranthony Dominguez for Huascar Brazoban at the deadline running a 4.02 FIP, 4.49 xFIP and 4.12 SIERA over the last 30 days. BARTOLO ranks the White Sox the 16th-best bullpen in the league.
None of the numbers for either of these starting pitchers encourages me, but I still tentatively have Martin nearly half a run ahead of Abbott without too much confidence, and it encourages me that most of the former's key issue has been with LHBs (.328 wOBA, .354 xwOBA), something the Cincinnati lineup lacks in quality and quantity.
I'm more confident in an offensive gap greater than 20 points (wRC+), while the White Sox also project the better defense (6 FRV) and better bullpen via BARTOLO, though last-30-day estimators do have the Reds nearly half a run better.
The overall package allows me to project the White Sox as substantial favorites, where the market has them just moderately so. I have the full game and F5 portions nearly equal values, so it really depends on personal preference, and I elect to involve the bullpens and disregard the opportunity for a push here.
Play to -160, but reduce to 0.5u above -150.
Pick: White Sox ML (-135, 1.35u) | Bet to -160
