The Chicago White Sox host the Cleveland Guardians again on July 11, 2025. First pitch from Rate Field is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. EDT; this second game of the day will be broadcast on CLEG.
Find my MLB betting preview and Guardians vs White Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Gavin Williams will get the ball for the Guardians, and Jonathan Cannon will start for the White Sox.
My Guardians vs White Sox Prediction
- Guardians vs White Sox picks: Under 8 (-115, BetMGM)
My Guardians vs White Sox best bet is Under 8. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Guardians vs White Sox Odds
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 8 -105o / -115u | -140 |
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 8 -105o / -115u | +115 |
Guardians vs White Sox Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Gavin Williams (CLE) | Stat | RHP Jonathan Cannon (CHW) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-4 | W-L | 3-7 |
| 0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.5 |
| 3.61 / 4.37 | ERA / xERA | 4.50 / 4.86 |
| 4.58 / 4.30 | FIP / xFIP | 4.77 / 4.80 |
| 1.41 | WHIP | 1.46 |
| 9.6 | K-BB% | 9.4 |
| 43.9 | GB% | 38.6 |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 92 | Location+ | 99 |
Guardians vs White Sox Preview
The White Sox have scored four runs or fewer in eight out of their last nine games, so Gavin Williams should be fine handling that offense.
The Guardians' starter has a 2.72 ERA across his past seven starts, and he already had success against Chicago this season. On April 10, Williams held the White Sox to one run and three hits across five innings, with seven strikeouts.
Chicago ranks 28th in the majors in wRC+ (80), 29th in ISO (.123) and dead-last in average (.222). Their numbers are worse against right-handed pitchers with 78 wRC+, .116 ISO and .218 average.
Jonathan Cannon might have a more demanding task against the Guardians, although he performs better at home than away. He has a 3.38 ERA at Rate Field compared to a 4.97 ERA on the road.
Cleveland has not been that productive either, ranking 26th overall with 86 wRC+.
This aligns with our Bet Labs recommendation for the under in this game.
Guardians vs White Sox Prediction, Betting Analysis
This MLB first five innings system, titled "Low Total Unders with Line Movement (F5)," is built around early-game environments where oddsmakers and sharp bettors anticipate limited scoring.
The foundation starts with a low closing total — between 3.5 and 6.5 — indicating a strong pitcher’s duel or poor hitting conditions.
If the full game total has moved down between half a run and one run from open to close, it signals smart money pushing the market toward the under.
The model further refines this edge by requiring the juice on the under to remain within a sharp range, typically between -149 and -120, avoiding inflated pricing that could distort value.
Games played in modest wind conditions — between four and nine miles per hour — are included, as they often suppress offense without triggering dramatic public reaction.
By isolating games across the past three seasons and targeting first-half unders in tightly lined, downward-trending markets, this system captures value where the market signals defensive control without overreaction.
Pick: Under 8 (-115, BetMGM)
