The New York Mets host the Cleveland Guardians on August 6, 2025. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on CLEG.
Read our Guardians vs Mets prediction and MLB pick below.
My Guardians vs Mets Prediction
- Guardians vs Mets Picks: Guardians ML (+140 or better)
My Guardians vs Mets best bet is on Cleveland's moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Guardians vs Mets Odds
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 8 -105o / -115u | +145 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 8 -105o / -115u | -175 |
Guardians vs Mets Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Gavin Williams (CLE) | Stat | LHP David Peterson (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-4 | W-L | 7-4 |
| 1.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.5 |
| 3.33 / 4.14 | ERA / xERA | 2.83 / 4.23 |
| 4.42 / 4.20 | FIP / xFIP | 3.33 / 3.64 |
| 1.35 | WHIP | 1.24 |
| 11.1% | K-BB% | 11.8% |
| 45% | GB% | 55.4% |
| 102 | Stuff+ | 89 |
| 93 | Location+ | 102 |
Tony Sartori’s Guardians vs Mets Preview
Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview
Right-hander Gavin Williams has bounced back from last year’s sophomore slump. Through 22 starts this season, Williams is 6-4 with a 3.33 ERA.
His underlying metrics are equally impressive. Entering this matchup, Williams ranks in the top half of qualified pitchers in expected batting average (xBA), strikeout rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Following the right-hander is one of the best bullpens in baseball. Among MLB bullpens this season, Cleveland’s relief corps ranks seventh in ERA and fourth in FIP.
The primary concern in backing the Guardians as underdogs in this game is their lackluster hitting. However, that issue may be mitigated by David Peterson taking the mound for New York.
New York Mets Betting Preview
Yes, Peterson’s surface-level stats are solid this year, but his analytics suggest that regression is imminent. He owns a 4.23 expected ERA (xERA) and a .276 xBA.
He also ranks in the bottom third of qualified pitchers in average exit velocity, strikeout rate and hard-hit rate.
Like Cleveland, the Mets have gotten strong production from their bullpen this season. However, their relief corps still trails the Guardians in both ERA and FIP.
New York’s primary advantage in this contest is its lineup. That said, it doesn’t justify how wide the price gap is, especially with Peterson’s expected regression looming.
Guardians vs Mets Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Mets struggle to generate contact, ranking 21st in hits per game and 22nd in batting average.
That creates a particularly favorable matchup for Williams, who ranks in the 60th percentile in xBA and 71st percentile in whiff rate.
At +150, it’s worth taking a shot on the underdogs in this spot.
Pick: Guardians moneyline (+140 or better)
Moneyline
As mentioned, I'm betting the Guardians moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I also like Cleveland to cover, but I find more value in just taking the outright moneyline price.
Over/Under
I lean toward the over, but don't want to fade Williams.
