There's just one MLB game on Thursday as we return from the All-Star Break.
The Phillies will host the Mets at Citizens Bank Park at 7:10 PM ET. The game can be streamed live on ESPN.
Check out our 4 MLB Best Bets Today for Phillies vs Mets on Thursday, July 16.
MLB Best Bets Today: Prediction, Picks for Mets vs Phillies
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Matt Trollo's Mets vs Phillies Best Bet
By Matt Trollo
Although I have each pitcher only about one-tenth of a run higher than BARTOLO, we’re both in agreement that either pitcher is around the four mark, and Aaron Nola owns the slightly better underlying metrics of the two.
But the Mets would even that up on defense, where they may have a +22 FRV edge.
I have both offenses even, around neutral, though BARTOLO utilizes historical information a bit more strongly, pushing the Mets up to a 124 wRC+ and the Phillies 114. This method gives more of a boost to struggling or injured players with stronger track records (Francisco Lindor, Jorge Polanco, Trea Turner) but could be late to the party on breakouts or real decline.
While BARTOLO and last-30-day estimators are aligned somewhat on the gap between the bullpens, the former regards them as the top two bullpens on the season, despite the near half-run difference. The monthly estimators (FIP, xFIP, SIERA average) have that gap at less than one-tenth of a run, but still favor the Phillies.
Believe it or not, I have this game dead even (+100 for both teams) with a total between 9.25 and 9.5, depending on the correct forecast. Umpiring and weather changes may alter that projection, but probably not enough to become actionable with a market total of 9.5.
The current +112 best price for the Mets is below my threshold of +115, but it’s very close.
Read Trollo's full Mets-Phillies preview here:
It's also worth mentioning that Mets ML has triggered two of our Action PRO Signals, meaning New York may be the sharp play on Thursday night.
Pick: Mets ML (+116 or Better)
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Ryan Minion's Mets vs Phillies Best Bet
By Ryan Minion
In Christian Scott’s first season back after Tommy John surgery, the Mets’ righty has been a pleasant surprise for a team desperate for production from its pitching staff.
Through 12 outings, Scott is running a 3.17 ERA and 1.30 WHIP across 54 innings.
Even better, Scott is striking out 9.6 batters per nine innings, ranking inside the top-30 qualified starting pitchers.
Across his past four starts, Scott has fanned 24 hitters in just 18 innings.
The Phillies don’t strike out a ton. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if the bats look a little slow after this past week’s All-Star festivities.
Scott dazzled in a start versus the Phils at the end of June, recording six strikeouts in just over four frames.
I expect more of the same from the Mets’ righty on Thursday night.
Read Minion's full Mets-Phillies SGP here:
Pick: Christian Scott Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-110 or Better)
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Sean Zerillo's Mets vs Phillies Projection
By Sean Zerillo
I don't project any value on either the side or the total for this matchup.
However, if you want to dive deeper and handicap this game further, I highly recommend checking out BARTOLO, our new PRO baseball betting tool that gives PRO subscribers access to all the data I use to handicap games each day.
Here's a sneak peek at today's BARTOLO Breakdown for Mets-Phillies:
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Top Player Prop Projections
Here are some of our top PRO player prop projections for today's only MLB game, in case you're looking for extra value on a single-game slate:
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