The Philadelphia Phillies host the New York Mets on Friday, July 16. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on ESPN.
The Phillies are favored by -135 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line (+150). The Mets are +112 underdogs on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line (-182). The total is set at 9.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Mets vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Mets vs Phillies Prediction
- Mets vs Phillies Pick: Lean Mets +116 or better, lean C.Scott o5.5 Strikeouts
My Mets vs Phillies best bets are leans on the Mets moneyline and Christian Scott to go over 5.5 strikeouts. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Phillies Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -182 | 9.5 -112o / -108u | +112 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 9.5 -112o / -108u | -135 |
- Mets vs Phillies moneyline: Mets +112, Phillies -135
- Mets vs Phillies over/under: 9.5 (-112o / -108u)
- Mets vs Phillies spread: Mets +1.5 (-182), Phillies -1.5 (+150)
Mets vs Phillies Kalshi MLB Odds
Mets vs Phillies Probable Pitchers
| RHP Christian Scott (NYM) | Stat | RHP Aaron Nola (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | W-L | 3-6 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 3.17 / 4.54 | ERA / xERA | 5.75 / 4.23 |
| 4.10 / 4.00 | FIP / xFIP | 4.67 / 3.90 |
| 16.7% | K-BB% | 16.7% |
| 30.1% | GB% | 39.4% |
| .285 | BABIP | .325 |
| 107 | Stuff+ | 106 |
| 96 | Location+ | 102 |
Mets vs Phillies MLB Betting Preview
New York Mets Betting Preview
We stay in Philadelphia to open the post-All Star break portion of the season.
While it used to be the case that teams used the break to line up their best pitchers to pitch the most innings, now most teams use it as a way to get their important arms extra rest.
That said, an argument can be made that Christian Scott does represent the top of the rotation for the Mets these days — or at least second-best behind Nolan McLean.
It will be difficult to sustain his 3.17 ERA with an 11.2 BB% and regression-screaming 84.4 LOB%, but Scott has also struck out 27.9% of batters, keeping his contact-neutral estimators right around four (3.94 SIERA, 4.00 xFIP).
The contact inclusive portion is not so easily evaluated.
Scott has a 4.10 FIP with a 12.5 HR/FB (league average for starters is 12.2), but also an xERA much higher (4.54), despite seven of 11 barrels leaving the yard. Pitchers usually have a higher FIP than xERA the higher their percentage of barrels have turned into home runs.
How does Scott produce an xERA that high with a 35 HardHit% and 8% Barrels/BBE, which are both either league average or better? A 30.1 GB% would be our first clue.
Scott has also posted a 4.54 dERA, which is difficult to evaluate because of the secret sauce. There’s even some discrepancy in the pitch modeling with PitchingBot (3.57 Bot ERA) the most encouraging of all his indicators, but Pitching+ (101) more in line with his SIERA and xFIP.
Returning throwing 1 mph harder (95.4) than when he left for Tommy John surgery (94.2), the fastball that Scott throws almost exactly half the time (50.1%) is graded above average by both systems (56 PB, 104 P+). The slider, which is a sweeper, is thrown more often to RHBs (35%), but still utilized against LHBs third most (15%) and seems to be one point of consternation with a 60 PB grade, but just 106 P+.
Scott’s sinker is another point of pitch modeling debate, but he only throws it 2.1% of the time overall and less than 5% to RHBs.
Perhaps the larger disagreement has to do with command grades, with a 52 Bot Cmd and 96 Location+ — and here we come right back to the sweeper again with a Bot Cmd of 53, but only a 93 Location+.
In three starts back from a short trip to the IL, Scott has struck out 18 of 55 batters, but with seven walks (20 K-BB%). Three of his five barrels (16.7%) have gone out (23.1 HR/FB) with a 46.7 HardHit%, further separating his xFIP (3.47) from his xERA (4.58).
His first start back was against the Phillies — he struck out six of 18 batters with five base runners and two runs (20.7 SwStr%, 50 HardHit%, 1 Barrel).
A couple of interesting notes are that Scott has exhibited below-average command of his slider by either metric (44 PB, 92 P+) since returning and hasn’t reached 20 batters faced or gone more than 90 pitches in any of his three starts.
One can understand the Mets’ caution with him in his first year back, especially with an in-season issue.
The sweeper would suggest Scott struggles more against LHBs, but that’s not the case, as RHBs own a .343 wOBA and .371 xwOBA against him this year, while batters with LHBs sit at .291 and .302.
This could be a point in Scott’s favor against a left-handed leaning Philadelphia lineup, especially considering that all three of its batters above a 92 wRC+ against RHP come from the left-hand side (Kyle Schwarber 141 wRC+, Bryce Harper 167, Brandon Marsh 139).
Justin Crawford is the only other Phillie (92 wRC+) above an 85 wRC+ against RHP this year.
Considering individual pitches, Harper has a strong matchup against Scott’s fastball. Harper has blasted fastballs this year (3.13 wFA/C), though Schwarber is the only other projected Phillie who lines up well against Scott’s arsenal, using pitch run values and usage tendencies.
Despite the reverse split, six of the seven home runs Scott has allowed have come against LHBs and five of the seven have been served up via fastball.
Scott has been neutral at holding runners, who have taken off on just 0.9% of opportunities, while the Phillies have the 9th-most stolen bases in the league (74). Seventeen of those belong to Bryson Stott, 16 to Trea Turner and 12 to Crawford, none of whom exceed a 91 wRC+ this season.
Stott and Crawford lead the team with 2 Runs via Stolen Bases each (Statcast). The projected Phillies lineup has accumulated 3 BRR (Base Running Runs, which includes extra bases taken) overall, four of which belong to Trea Turner.
One thing Jorge Polanco’s return does is prevent the Mets from playing Luis Torrens behind the plate as often with Franciso Alvarez at DH. Torrens is one of the toughest catchers to run on, throwing out 41% of attempted steals and rating top five with 4 CS Above Average, despite part-time play.
Alvarez, more likely to be behind the plate, has thrown out just three base stealers or 14% (-1 CSAA).
The Mets defense is 25th in the league at -14 Runs Prevented and -18 OAA. However, only Juan Soto, Brett Baty and Alvarez are negatives by FRV (Fielding Run Value) at -2 each.
BARTOLO rates the Mets’ bullpen second best in the league with a 3.88 wFIP. Needless to say, everyone should be available coming out of the break.
By last-30-day indicators, the Mets are just 20th-best in the league with a 4.88 FIP, 4.11 xFIP and 3.94 SIERA, all much better than their fifth worst 5.72 ERA. Their bullpen LOB% (62.9) is worst in the majors during this span, and their 17.5 HR/FB is tied for 2nd worst.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
The Phillies counter with Aaron Nola — their 4th best starter — though all three arms above him either pitched in the All-Star game or on Sunday.
For the second straight season and fifth in the last six, Nola’s 5.75 ERA is far above his estimators, though actually a quarter-run better than his 6.01 ERA last year.
Sure, defense and park matter, but the top three in the rotation seem fine and the difference between the last two seasons and the four previous are that the underlying metrics are no longer much better than average, with 2026’s 3.87 SIERA, 3.90 xFIP, 4.67 FIP, 4.23 xERA, 3.78 Bot ERA and 106 Pitching+ all career worsts.
While Nola has allowed three runs or fewer in seven of his last nine starts, he’s only exceeded five innings in two of those starts His 19.2 K-BB% over his last 10 with a 37.7 HardHit% does produce a 3.59 xERA, even with 10.4% Barrels/BBE and a 37.7 GB% matching his hard hit rate.
Nola has slightly increased his knuckle-curve usage (36.1%), while reducing his fastball (19.8%) over this stretch. This makes sense, as the curve is his best pitch with a 123 Pitching+ and 59 PB grade, though the fastball is not far behind (111, 57).
While he has only a 20-point split gap by actual results (LHBs .366 wOBA, RHBs .344), Statcast drops both sides to a .336 xwOBA for LHBs and .292 xwOBA for RHBs against Nola this year.
Problematically, Polanco’s return to the lineup could put seven LHBs in the Mets lineup. Only Soto (181 wRC+), A.J. Ewing (128) and Jared Young (110) have done significant damage against RHPs this year of that group, but Francisco Lindor (89) and Polanco (77) have performed well below career norms. Carson Benge (106) has also excelled since April, not posting an overall wRC+ below 109 during any of the succeeding months.
Three right-handed Mets do bring some question. Luis Robert Jr. and Marcus Semien could be set to return from the IL, though the former will likely platoon and the latter would probably best serve the team in that role also. There’s no reasonable argument to play Semien over Baty at second base against RHPs at this point, but that doesn’t mean they won’t do it.
Finally, Bo Bichette missed the last series before the break due to “deep bruises and significant soreness in both legs”, which is something I’ve never read in an MLB injury report before.
Initial reports were that he’s expected back and I haven’t heard anything different since. Bichette is coming off a red-hot June (141 wRC+ after posting marks below 70 in both April and May). He’s only had 38 June PAs (90 wRC+).
From an individual pitch perspective, the Mets line up better against Nola’s arsenal than the Phillies against Scott.
Everyone except Polanco shows up well against Nola’s fastball and sinker (30% RHBs, 14% LHBs) with Soto, Lindor, Young and Baty hitting the curveball well, too.
Nola did strike out six of 24 Mets in just five innings, allowing two home runs (both Soto) on a 47.7 HardHit% and 35.5 GB% in June.
Runners have taken off 1.6% of the time against Nola, who has been below average with -1 Net Bases Prevented. While J.T. Realmuto’s best days are certainly behind him, he still shows up strongly at 3 CSAA despite throwing out just 24% of runners — perhaps he's hamstrung more by pitchers than other catchers.
The Mets have dropped to 23rd in stolen bases with 47. The departure of first-base coach Antoan Richardson is believed to be a key reason why. Rookies Benge (15) and Ewing (9) lead the team with Soto down to seven after a league-leading 38 in 2025.
Not only is Benge the only Met with more than one Run via Stolen Base, nobody else has even one. He also leads the projected lineup with 3 BRR overall, with Baty the only other Met in positive territory, though the lineup, as a whole, sits at 0.
Despite the Phillies being a spot ahead of the Mets defensively with -13 Runs Prevented and -16 OAA, their projected lineup sits 22 FRV worse with Turner (-6), Alec Bohm (-6) Harper (-5) and surprisingly, Marsh (-4) all serious offenders.
The Phillies bullpen ranks best in the league, the only one better than the Mets via BARTOLO with a 3.48 wFIP that’s 0.4 runs better than their opponents. However, they are also middle of the league over the last 30 days with a 4.97 FIP, 4.12 xFIP and 3.59 SIERA. Ironically, the Phillies tie the Mets with a 17.5 HR/FB over the last month.
Mets vs Phillies Pick, Betting Analysis
While weather sources seem to be in agreement that this game should start in the low 90s before dropping off to the high 80s in temperature, there’s some disagreement about wind direction, though that should drop in intensity throughout the game.
One source has that wind blowing left to right, though BARTOLO currently has the wind direction out towards right field. The forecast could certainly change by the time this is read.
We do not yet have umpire information.
Although I have each pitcher only about one-tenth of a run higher than BARTOLO, we’re both in agreement with either pitcher around the four mark and Nola owning the slightly better underlying metrics of the two.
Where the Mets would even that up though, is defensively, where they may have that aforementioned 22 FRV edge.
I have both offenses even, around neutral, though BARTOLO utilizes historical information a bit more strongly, pushing the Mets up to a 124 wRC+ and the Phillies 114. This method gives more of a boost to struggling or injured players with stronger track records (Lindor, Polanco, Turner, but could be later to the party on breakouts or real decline.
While BARTOLO and L30 day estimators are aligned somewhat on the gap between the pens, the former regards them as the top two bullpens on the season, despite the near half-run difference. The monthly estimators (FIP, xFIP, SIERA average) have that gap at less than one-tenth of a run, but still favoring the Phillies.
Believe it or not, I have this game dead even (100 for both teams) with a total between 9.25 and 9.5, depending on the correct forecast. Umpiring and weather changes may alter that projection, but probably not enough to become actionable with a market total of 9.5.
The current F5 market, which is FanDuel only as of this writing on Wednesday night, has both teams at least -110, showing negative value on either side.
The current +112 best price for the Mets sits below my threshold of greater than +115, but it’s very close.
Soto or Harper home run props above +200 are reasonable plays, though Schwarber is below that mark.
One other play to watch here would be Christian Scott’s strikeout prop. He’s been better against LHBs (29.2%) than RHBs (25.2%), which should give him a bit of a boost.
Five of the nine batters in the projected Philadelphia lineup exceed a 22.5 K% vs RHP, giving them a weighted 23.5 K% through the 20 batters I project Scott to face (13 LH, 7 RH).
Park and weather combine to slightly suppress strikeouts by a percent or two at this point (park positive, weather negative). We could see a forecast change or an umpire who has a large effect one way or the other.
Also, Scott threw 90 pitches in his last start, more than his first two coming off the IL, only facing 19 batters. It’s entirely possible he could break the 20-batter barrier and push this into positive value territory at plus money on 5.5. I’ll be sure to post in the app if that happens.
Pick: Lean Mets +116 or better; lean C.Scott over 5.5 Strikeouts
