The Philadelphia Phillies host the Cleveland Guardians on May 22, 2026. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NBCS-PH.
The Phillies are favored by -178 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Guardians are +150 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 6.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Guardians vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Guardians vs Phillies Prediction
- Guardians vs Phillies Pick: F5 Under 3.5 (-115)
My Guardians vs Phillies best bet is on the under total runs in the first five innnings. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Guardians vs Phillies Odds
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 6.5 -122o / -100u | +150 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 6.5 -122o / -100u | -178 |
- Guardians vs Phillies moneyline: Guardians +150, Phillies -178
- Guardians vs Phillies over/under: 6.5 (-122o / -100u)
- Guardians vs Phillies spread: Guardians +1.5 (-150), Phillies -1.5 (+125)
Guardians vs Phillies Probable Pitchers
| RHP Gavin Williams (CLE) | Stat | LHP Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-3 | W-L | 5-2 |
| 1.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.5 |
| 3.67/4.48 | ERA / xERA | 1.82/2.76 |
| 3.75/3.08 | FIP / xFIP | 1.92/2.27 |
| 20.4% | K-BB% | 24.6% |
| 45.8% | GB% | 59.3% |
| .290 | BABIP | .353 |
| 105 | Stuff+ | 117 |
| 103 | Location+ | 97 |
Guardians vs Phillies MLB Betting Preview
Sanchez comes in with a 1.82 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 80 strikeouts across 64.1 innings, and the swing-and-miss has taken another jump with an 11.2 K/9. Williams has not been as clean from a run-prevention standpoint, but the stuff is real. He owns a 3.67 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 73 strikeouts in 61.1 innings, with a career-best 10.7 K/9.
Sánchez is sitting at a 30% strikeout rate with a 25% K-BB rate, while Williams is right behind him at a 29% strikeout rate and 20% K-BB rate.
That matters in a F5 Under because we are not asking these guys to go seven scoreless. We just need them to avoid traffic early, stay ahead in the count, and kill rallies with punch outs.
Sánchez is the biggest reason I like this. Cleveland is not a lineup I’m scared of against left-handed pitching in this spot, and Sánchez already has the type of profile that travels in any matchup.
Yes, the Guardians have been impressive offensively thus far, but this is a brutal matchup for them. Sanchez keeps the ball on the ground, misses barrels, and does not give away many free passes.
His career numbers against the current Guardians roster are also strong. According to Baseball Savant, Cleveland has just a .208 average and .241 wOBA against him, with only an 84.6 mph average exit velocity. That is not exactly screaming an early crooked inning on the scoreboard.
Gavin Williams is more volatile, but this is the right kind of volatility for an under. He can walk guys, sure, but the Phillies’ current roster has not done much damage against him.
The current Phillies lineup is at a .241 average and only a .281 expected slugging percentage against Williams. That tells me even when they have seen him, they have not squared him up much.
Guardians vs Phillies Pick, Betting Analysis
I know 3.5 runs in the first five innings can feel gross. Nobody loves sweating an under that can get cracked by one crooked inning.
Yes, I can already envision the twitter replies after the disaster that took place in the Brewers/Cubs game. A ball went under PCA’s glove in CF which led to 3 early runs for the Brewers. Guess what? I’m not backing down because of that.
This Phillies and Guardians matchup has the exact kind of starting pitching profile where I’m willing to hold my nose and play the F5 Under again.
This is really a bet on Cristopher Sánchez and Gavin Williams controlling the first two trips through the order. Sánchez has been flat-out nasty for Philly.
Citizens Bank Park can always get scary when the weather warms up, but this handicap is about power arms beating bats early.
Sánchez is pitching like a frontline guy right now, and Williams has enough swing-and-miss to keep Philly from stringing together the kind of inning that could this low total.
At 3.5, we do not have a ton of room for nonsense like the other night in Chicago. But with both starters missing bats at an elite clip, I’m betting this starts tighter than the market wants to admit.
Pick: F5 Under 3.5 (-115)
