The Cleveland Guardians host the Detroit Tigers on October 1, 2025. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 1:08 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on ESPN Networks.
Find my MLB betting preview and Tigers vs Guardians prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Tigers vs Guardians Prediction
- Tigers vs Guardians picks: Under 6.5 (play to 6)
My Tigers vs Guardians best bet is Under 6.5 (play to 6). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Tigers vs Guardians Odds
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -220 | 7 105o / -125u | +105 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +180 | 7 105o / -125u | -125 |
Tigers vs Guardians Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Casey Mize (DET) | Stat | RHP Tanner Bibee (CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 14-6 | W-L | 12-11 |
| 2.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.9 |
| 3.87/3.70 | ERA /xERA | 4.24/3.65 |
| 3.89/3.97 | FIP / xFIP | 4.34/4.17 |
| 1.27 | WHIP | 1.23 |
| 3.9 | K-BB% | 3.0 |
| 38.7 | GB% | 44.7 |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 102 |
| 107 | Location+ | 99 |
Sean Paul’s Tigers vs Guardians Preview
Detroit Tigers Betting Preview
Game One went exactly how the Tigers' blueprint planned. Tarik Skubal dominated and the Tigers are one game from moving onto the ALDS. Now, they need the other starters to pick up where Skubal left off.
It took time for Casey Mize to realize his potential as the former No. 1 overall pick. He isn’t quite the ace many envisioned, but he’s a solid second or third starter. Mize posted a career-best 3.87 ERA with a 3.70 xERA and a 3.89 FIP. He altered his formula from an extreme ground-ball pitcher in hopes of hunting more strikeouts — he boosted his K/9 to 8.40 while dropping his GB% to 38%.
The Tigers' offense continues to trend in the wrong direction. They ranked 26th in September in wRC+ and struck out 26% of the time. The entire team went cold at basically the same time. Detroit had plenty of chances to not have to sweat in the 9th inning of game one, but they didn't come up with the big hits. That's an ongoing theme of late for them.
They notched five hits in the first game of the series, and even featured some Guardians-esque small-ball via a game-tying bunt. I just have very little faith in Detroit stringing hits and runs together unless Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter contribute. And it's no coincidence that both of the Tigers' runs were courtesy of that pair getting on base.
Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview
The Guardians needed an ace-like effort from Tanner Bibee down the stretch, and he delivered. Bibee finished his year with a 4.24 ERA, but posted a 3.35 ERA in his final seven outings and held the Tigers to just two runs in 12 innings in his final two outings.
While Bibee doesn't offer the same electricity that yesterday's starter, Gavin Williams, did, he is a maven of soft contact. Bibee ranked in the 80th percentile in hard-hit rate, 69th in average exit velocity, and 66th in BB%. The combination of soft-contact and strike-throwing ability should be huge weapons for Cleveland's game one starter.
Following Bibee is a bullpen that hasn't missed a beat without Emmanuel Clase. I, for one, thought Cleveland would be in deep trouble by pushing Cade Smith and Hunter Gaddis into bigger roles. But that didn't happen, as the Guardians lead MLB in ERA (2.93) and xERA (2.85) since August 1st.
I think we got a good glimpse of what to expect from the rest of this series in game one. The Guardians don't have to face Skubal in game two, but they don't have a lot of offensive firepower. They'll look to put the ball in play and force the defense to make quick plays. Again, they aren't facing Skubal, but only one of the Guardians' four hits reached the outfield! A lot of what the Guardians want to do is use their speed and get on base. They have no interest in playing a high-scoring game, despite their offense finding new life in the season's final month.
Besides Jose Ramirez, Cleveland lacks a true go-to bat to come through in big spots. Steven Kwan is hitting .246 over his last 15 games, and Kyle Manzardo is hitting .200 in that stretch. Manzardo can change a game with one swing, but he's basically the only Cleveland hitter outside of Ramirez who can do that.
Tigers vs Guardians Prediction, Betting Analysis
In five of the past seven meetings, the Guardians and Tigers scored six or fewer combined runs. With the total sitting at 6.5, just like in game one, I see a similar result. Both pitchers are very good and I don't trust either offense to put up enough runs to threaten the over. At this point, both teams want a well-pitched, low-scoring game. This game should be more of the same.
Pick: Under 6.5 (play to 6)
Moneyline
No play
Run Line (Spread)
No play
Over/Under
I like the under.
