Diamondbacks vs Nationals Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Thursday, June 22
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Diamondbacks vs. Nationals Odds
-114 / -106
-114 / -106
Who wouldn't love another day game? We are in luck, as we get another afternoon matinee with the Arizona Diamondbacks and Washington Nationals making up their game that was originally scheduled for earlier this month.
The Diamondbacks enter today's matchup with a two-game lead in the NL West. They have been one of the most pleasant surprises in the league, as their blend of young talent has been productive.
Unfortunately, the same cannot be said about the Washington Nationals. While they certainly have some great young pieces, they have yet to click or show any consistency. Washington comes into this game having won just three of its last 10 games, and the odds are against the Nats turning it around.
The Diamondbacks have become a fun team to watch, as they are built around quality young talent who can impact ball games in many different ways. Corbin Carroll is the prime example of that. The NL Rookie of the Year favorite has even gotten some MVP consideration, as he's doing it all on the diamond.
While their success is great for the game, the numbers show that they are due to regress as their team xBA is 16 points lower than their team batting average. Overall, their speed has bailed them out — the Diamondbacks rank 26th in xwOBACON.
However, that regression may not start today, as they will face Jake Irvin and the Nationals' lowly bullpen behind him. Irvin comes into this outing with a 5.25 ERA, having had trouble containing most lineups the second time through the order.
Irvin does not miss many bats at all, as his whiff rate sits in the 1st percentile among qualified pitchers. On top of that, his walk rate sits in the 7th percentile, so he is not doing himself any favors.
We may only see him for the first half of this one, and then it will be in the hands of a Nationals bullpen that sports the fourth-worst bullpen ERA in the majors. It's safe to say Arizona is in an excellent spot to put some runs on the board this afternoon.
Like their counterparts in this one, the Nationals also have a lineup that is due to regress, given their overall quality of contact. Washington ranks one spot lower in xwOBACON than Arizona, and its team xBA is expected to drop seven points.
However, the Nationals are also in a good spot offensively, as they will be up against Arizona's Tommy Henry. The young left-hander has put together a few solid performances this season, and this Nationals team has seen him quite a bit already.
Henry has made two starts against Washington this season, and he has combined to allow seven earned runs over 10 1/3 innings. So while his results for this matchup are far less predictable, the Diamondbacks will have to rely on their bullpen.
Arizona's bullpen has been a big part of its resurgence, as it ranks 14th in bullpen ERA. However, the Snakes are in line to improve as a whole — their FIP is 4.04 and their SIERA is 3.90.
Diamondbacks vs. Nationals Betting Pick
This matchup is a tough one to call, as there is inconsistency spread throughout it. Both starting pitchers have shown they can deal and be knocked around. Each lineup has looked excellent but is also due for some sizable regression.
Ultimately, the difference maker in this matchup is the Arizona bullpen. If they can continue to build on their success as a group, they will give the Diamondbacks the opportunity to win this game.
Washington has not shown us anything out of their pen to prove they can contain Arizona's lineup for four or five innings. So, back the Snakes in this one.
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