Stuckey: Friday Night Baseball Betting at the Great American Over Park
David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Reds outfielder Yasiel Puig (66)
Betting Odds: Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds
- Dodgers Moneyline: -126 (Rich Hill)
- Reds Moneyline: +116 (Anthony DeSclafani)
- Over/Under: 9.5
- First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
>> All odds as of 11 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets
I recently wrote about how Petco Park had completely flipped from one of the league’s best under parks to an elite over park in recent years as a result of changes to the park. Well, that’s not the case with Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati.
It’s always been a hitter’s dream since it opened in 2013, replacing Cinergy Field. When you say “hitter’s park,” it is one of five MLB stadiums that immediately pop in my head:
- Great American Ballpark (Reds)
- Coors Field (Rockies)
- Miller Park (Brewers)
- Citizens Bank Park (Phillies)
- Global Life Park (Rangers)
More importantly, the market has seemed to underestimate the over/unders in Cincinnati. No team in baseball has been more profitable to the over at home since 2005 than the Reds.
A $100 bettor would have profited more than $3,600 by blindly betting overs at Great American Ballpark since 2005, per BetLabs.
I like those over numbers to improve tonight, as I fancy the Dodgers-Reds over 9.5. The ballpark helps but it’s certainly not the primary reason why I bet it. Here are a few of the main reasons why this play jumped out:
- The Dodgers have one of the most lethal lineups against right-handed pitchers in all of MLB. Not many teams can stack a lineup with the number of left-handers with elite discipline and power like Los Angeles can. It ranks fifth overall in slugging percentage against righties.
- Along those same lines, I like this Reds lineup vs. left-handed starters. In fact they lead all of baseball in home wOBA (weighted on-base average) vs. southpaws, per FanGraphs.
- Also, after watching the past few Reds games, I think Cincinnati’s offense is about to break out. Joey Votto looked much more comfortable the past two nights against the Cubs, Eugenio Suarez is red hot and Nick Senzel has been a spark at the top of the lineup since his debut.
- Lastly, while the Dodgers will come in fully rested, the Reds may not have their full arsenal available in the pen, which has been one of their biggest strengths this season (third-best bullpen ERA in MLB). Three of their top arms — closer Raisel Iglesias (2.2 IP), Amir Garrett and David Hernandez — each pitched the past two nights.
- In regards to the starters, Rich Hill still doesn’t look right, as the 39 year old tries to get back in form after coming back from an injury. Meanwhile, Anthony DeSclafani gives up a ton of home runs — not ideal at Great American Ballpark, where his career ERA sits almost 1.5 runs higher than his road ERA. In fact, over the past three seasons, only seven other pitchers have a higher HR/9 rate than DeScalafani (min. 150 innings). The Dodgers’ powerful lineup should be able to take advantage.
I should mention that the forecast calls for southwesterly winds which means they will be blowing in at GABP. However, they are only expected to be around 7 mph — much lower than my materiality threshold.
If you’re looking at the side, I think there is some value on the Reds — a team I have bet the past few nights and one that’s on my radar in the near future. They have some solid arms in that rotation, the bullpen has been excellent and the bats should come to life. Throw in some fortune that is due to turnaround (7-13 in one-run games) and I think you have a potentially undervalued team in the market.
The Pick: Over 9.5