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Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Picks: Bet Los Angeles on Run Line

Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Picks: Bet Los Angeles on Run Line article feature image
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Gary Coronado / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images. Pictured: Max Muncy and Cody Bellinger

  • The Los Angeles Dodgers take on the Arizona Diamondbacks in Wednesday afternoon MLB action.
  • The Dodgers enter as huge -180 favorites for this afternoon showdown.
  • Check out Nick Martin's full betting guide for this game below.

Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Odds

Dodgers Odds -180
Diamondbacks Odds +160
Over/Under 8 (-110 / -110)
Time 3:40 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Arizona posted a shocking comeback victory over the Dodgers on Monday. After falling behind 3-0 in the first, the D’Backs staff pieced together 8 scoreless innings for the win.

The Dodgers hit into five double-plays, and lost by two, despite having outhit the D-Backs 9-4.

L.A. sendsJulio Urias to the mound Wednesday for the rubber match, while Arizona will send its ace in Zac Gallen.

Can the Diamondbacks steal a series win over the mighty Dodgers?

Dodgers Playing Well, But NL West Remains Fierce

Dave Roberts boldly guaranteed his club would win the World Series in 2022, a statement which was probably a pretty foolish thing to say altogether, however his roster has come absolutely flying out of the gates and have made the comment look more livable for the time being.

The Dodgers have played to a 12-5 record to start the year, but similar to last season, the race for top of the NL West appears to be quite a dogfight, and that mark is only good enough for L.A. to enjoy a tie at the top with the Giants.

The Dodgers have found each of their wins by a margin of two runs or more, playing to an overall run differential of +46. As you might expect, that is the best mark in the big leagues.

It has produced 5.23 runs per game with a .354 xWOBA, which are really strong marks with how bats have been silenced in 2022 across the league.

Freddie Freeman has started his career with the Dodgers red-hot, while Cody Bellinger has seemingly surged back into form out of nowhere. Even with some tremendous batters such as Mookie Betts, Justin Turner and Max Muncy not playing anywhere near their top level, this lineup has still been very productive.

Los Angeles has been particularly effective against right-handed pitching, with a 132 wRC+ and a .349 wOBA, and they will see a very strong one here in Zac Gallen.

The Dodgers have been particularly excellent against fastballs, and changeups with a +11.1 wFB, and +2.0 wCH, and Zac Gallen has thrown four-seamers 57.2% of the time, and changeups 20%.

Los Angeles will send Julio Urias to the mound Wednesday, who has had an altogether solid start to the season.  Urias has pitched to an ERA of 3.00 with an xERA of 3.50, and a .213 xBA. He has lowered each of those marks over his last two outings after a tough opening outing in Colorado.

Urias has allowed an average exit velocity of just 85.4 MPH on the road since the start of last season, which is the third-best in the MLB among starting pitchers with at least 88 total IP.

The Dodgers bullpen has been excellent so far this season, with a team ERA of 2.22. Some of the main arms pitched yesterday, but Los Angeles should still have a wealth of good arms ready Wednesday.

D’Backs Offense Still Struggling

Urias may not be elite this season, but consistent results with what we have seen should often be enough to keep this Diamondbacks lineup under wraps Wednesday.

The Diamondbacks rank dead last in both wRC+ and wOBA. vs left-handed pitching, with a wRC+ of 56 and a wOBA of .245. Much of this lineup has struggled historically against Urias, with Carson Kelly the only one to find much success, batting .300 with 2 homers in 10 AB’s.

The good news for Arizona is it will send a high-upside starter to the mound in Gallen, who has pitched to a 1.27 xERA so far this season, with an xBA of .222.

Gallen has pitched to a 4.45 QOPA this season, which is just about a league average rate. His stuff doesn’t figure to be his biggest asset by any means, but it’s certainly possible this lethal Dodgers order can lower his excellent K rate of 27.3 % and find more contact than we have seen so far off Gallen this season Wednesday.

Dodgers-Diamondbacks Pick

The fact that Gallen has been so good keeps this line a bit closer,  but I still feel that in several months, the Dodgers should and will be a much larger favorite over the D’Backs given how good they truly are.

The discrepancies between these two batting orders are very significant, and it’s very possible we see Urias keeping this lowly Diamondbacks lineup in check Wednesday and leaving in line for a win with even the more moderate run support he will get against Gallen.

Should the first 5-6 innings play closer than I am hoping, I will take the edge the Dodgers hold over the back third of the game as well in this spot. I’ll lay the -1.5 with L.A.

Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

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