You have to check out Fanatics Sportsbook's newest big-money contest, the MLB Long Ball Jackpot.
It’s already paid out some big winners… Maybe you’ll be next?!?!
Fanatics Long Ball Jackpot: An Introduction
Here's how it works:
- Opt in and bet a minimum of $5 on a player to hit a home run. You can only select one player.
- If your player hits the longest home run on the MLB slate, you split $50,000 in FanCash with everyone else who bet that player.
- But because the longest home run on a given day is pretty random and about 270 players are eligible on a 15-game slate, there have been some huge winners already.
- Home run distance is measured via MLB's StatCast, which captures "the flight of the path based on radar as far as the radar will allow us to track it" and "if the radar loses it, we project beyond it based on the physics." So, it's not a perfect measurement.
While Fanatics is the first sportsbook to run a competition based on the length of home runs in baseball, several other sportsbooks offer similar contests.
For example, DraftKings runs the NBA King of the Court contest, in which the player who bets the highest PRA total on the slate wins. Of course, this more often than not results in minuscule payouts, given how top-heavy the league is.
On the contrary, the Long Ball Jackpot offers much greater randomness, resulting in much higher payouts.
As such, the contest is far more strategic.
Long Ball Game Theory
On the surface, you’d think you want to target players who hit a ton of homers.
But the game theory in this contest runs deeper, with more statistical variables to consider.
For starters, average home run distance and launch angle are of vital importance for picking Long Ball Jackpot winners. Any search for this contest should start by identifying a group of players who thrive in these categories.
Additionally, you have to take the weather, specifically wind speed, into account. Heavy winds can drastically impact the distance of any home run. At the same time, take into account the ballpark, as some are far easier than others to hit longer homers.
Finally, taking a contrarian stance in this contest is the best route. There’s little correlation between how elite a hitter is and how long he can crush a home run on any given day.
To maximize potential profit, you must get creative with your selections so your winnings are not split among a large group.
MLB HR Picks for Tuesday, April 21
Jordan Walker
@ Marlins, 6:40 PM ET
Among the hottest home run hitters in the sport, Jordan Walker has smashed eight home runs already this season. But he’s hit a bit of a slump, not clearing the fence in six games.
Tuesday could be a good bounce-back spot, as Marlins starter Chris Paddack has been awful, having already allowed four homers across four starts. Paddack has also been slammed by right-handed hitters this season, allowing uber-high fly-ball and hard-contact rates.
With Walker ranking in the top five among MLB hitters in bat speed, alongside a decent matchup and warm weather in Miami, let’s take him to smash a moon shot.
Pick: Jordan Walker Home Run (+375, Fanatics)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
@ Angels, 9:38 PM ET
Vladdy is still pacing the Blue Jays in bat speed and hard-contact rate, and he sets up well to go yard tonight against the Angels.
Guerrero only has two homers this season, and while both were off Southpaws, he’s historically been a terror against righties.
Angels starter Jack Kochanowicz has been lights out against lefties but has allowed plenty of hard contact against right-handed batters with a far-above-average fly-ball rate.
The weather in Los Angeles should be warm today, so the ball should be flying, which will only help Vladdy.
Pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Home Run (+410, Fanatics)
Nick Kurtz
@ Mariners, 9:40 PM ET
After hitting a 416-foot homer last night against the Mariners, I’m running it back with Nick Kurtz to hit another on Tuesday.
A legit power hitter, Kurtz ranks among the top-six MLB hitters in bat speed, but only has three homers on the season to show for it. He hit 36 home runs in his rookie season, so positive regression should be coming.
Mariners pitcher Luis Castillo has struggled against lefties this season, and historically, he’s allowed much higher HR/9, fly-ball, and hard-contact rates against the left side compared to the right.
Pick: Nick Kurtz Home Run (+390, Fanatics)
