Giants vs Cubs Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Monday, September 4
Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images. Pictured: Logan Webb #62 of the San Francisco Giants
Giants vs. Cubs Odds
The first installment of this three-game series gets underway Monday as the NL Central's Chicago Cubs host the NL West's San Francisco Giants.
This series is critical in the wild card race with Chicago holding a 2.5 game advantage over San Francisco, who is tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks for the final spot.
Will the Cubs defend their home diamond, or can the Giants pull off the upset on the road?
Here's a look at the odds and my Giants vs. Cubs betting pick and prediction.
Right-hander Logan Webb takes the mound for San Francisco and should be a good candidate to back. Through 28 starts this season, Webb boasts a 3.49 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.
His underlying metrics suggest that regression is unlikely as the right-hander ranks in the 72nd percentile in xERA. This success could continue against the Cubs given that in his last start against them, Webb allowed just two runs through seven innings of work en route to the Giants' 5-2 win.
Following the right-hander is a strong bullpen that ranks in the Top 10 of the league in ERA, wOBA, WHIP and xFIP.
San Francisco's Achilles heel this season has been its performance at the dish, ranking in the bottom-third of the league in every hitting category across the board. With that said, perhaps it can find some success in this matchup against left-hander Justin Steele.
It has been an incredible year for Steele, who is 15-3 with a 2.69 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. With that said, his 3.51 xERA suggests that regression is looming, which could come to fruition against a Giants team that he has struggled against.
In his two career starts against San Francisco, Steele is 0-2 with a 4.15 ERA and 2.08 WHIP. Through 30 career plate appearances against the left-hander, this current Giants lineup boasts a commanding .407 BA, .630 SLG and .467 wOBA.
On the other hand, this current Cubs lineup possesses a fade-worthy .172 BA, .281 SLG and .192 wOBA through 64 career plate appearances against Webb.
Chicago also possesses the weaker bullpen with its relief staff trailing San Francisco's in ERA, wOBA, WHIP and xFIP.
Giants vs. Cubs
Betting Pick & Prediction
I took the Giants at +100 for this game and would bet them up to that number. Webb is more than capable of hanging in there against Steele, especially given Steele's expected regression and poor track record against San Francisco.
Additionally, if those two perform strongly and the game is close entering the final frames, the Giants boast the stronger bullpen.
The one area where Chicago boasts the advantage is in the hitting department. Although, as highlighted in the previous section, San Francisco's lineup has had much more success against Steele than the Cubs' has had against Webb.