Tuesday MLB Odds, Picks for Giants vs. Phillies: Can San Francisco Extend Philadelphia’s Losing Streak?
Photo by Michael Urakami/Getty Images. Pictured: Jakob Junis (Giants)
- The Phillies have lost four games in a row, including the first game of their three-game set against the Giants.
- The Phillies send Ranger Suárez to the hill on Tuesday, which favors the Giants.
- D.J. James explains why this plays into San Francisco's favor despite its shaky bullpen.
Giants vs. Phillies Odds
|Over/Under||9 (-112 / -108)|
|Time||6:45 p.m. ET|
|Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
After dropping the first outing, 5-4, on Monday, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the San Francisco Giants in the second game of a three-game set.
Jakob Junis will pitch for the Giants while Ranger Suárez will get the start for the Phillies.
Junis has been a tad lucky, with a 2.75 ERA against a 4.17 xERA. Suárez owns a 4.74 ERA with a 4.51 xERA.
Neither of these teams have a particularly strong bullpen, but the angle here is how well the Giants can hit lefties. This should provide the Giants enough of an edge, so taking them as underdogs is the correct call in this ballgame.
Giants Need Junis to Pitch Deep Into Game
With no earned runs in two starts, Junis had a great month of April. He’s come back down to earth a bit, but he’ll be able to go at least five innings — even if he struggles slightly.
Considering how Philly is performing relatively poorly off of righties, Junis should be able to mow down hitters at will.
The Phillies are missing Didi Gregorius, but he only held a .204 xwOBA this month off of right-handers.
Meanwhile, only three Phillies hitters are above the .340 xwOBA mark in May when facing this side of the pitching rubber: Bryce Harper, Garrett Stubbs and Kyle Schwarber.
The rest of the lineup will not put together strong plate appearances.
Now, the one hang-up for San Francisco will be its bullpen. The unit owns a 6.65 ERA with a 4.57 xFIP this month, making it unbearably lucky. The bullpen has still been brutal, though.
With how poorly the Phillies have performed off of righties this month, Junis can go deep into the game and prevent further strain on a weak relief corps.
Can Phillies’ Bullpen Rebound?
Suárez ranks in the 84th and 82nd percentile in Average Exit Velocity and Hard Hit Percentage, respectively. Otherwise, his peripherals are not encouraging — he’ll walk batters at a 9.7% rate and doesn’t get batters to chase often.
San Francisco is one of the best teams in baseball in terms of limiting its chasing, so this should play into its collective hands.
The Giants’ roster is a bit depleted with injuries, as LaMonte Wade, Jr., Austin Slater, Steven Duggar and Brandon Belt are all on the injured list.
On the plus side, the Giants have seven hitters above the .340 xwOBA mark off of lefties. Joey Bart and Joc Pederson are below that mark, but they have posted a 90+ MPH Exit Velocity off of right-handers. Since they’re hitting the ball hard, this should be more than enough power for the Giants’ order.
In addition, the Phillies’ bullpen has not performed much better than San Francisco’s. Philly has posted a 4.59 ERA and 4.15 xFIP this month.
No one in the Phillies’ bullpen has a sub-3.00 xFIP, so this does not help if they want to close the door without drama.
Brad Hand is the only southpaw in the Phillies’ bullpen, so after Suárez, they will have to put their 112 wRC+ mark to use from the other side of the pitching rubber.
Junis is a more consistent and a more calculated pitcher at the moment than Suárez is.
Neither team has an edge in the bullpen, but since the Giants can hit lefties so well, they will likely pile on the runs against Suárez.
Meanwhile, Junis will go at least five innings to save the San Francisco relief arms.
Take the Giants.
Pick: San Francisco Giants +115 | play to -120
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