Giants vs Phillies Odds & Prediction: Sunday Night Baseball Prop Pick

This series has not gone the way the San Francisco Giants had hoped. As someone who was in attendance for last night's 14-3 loss, it's safe to say they need to bounce back against the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday Night Baseball.

The Giants have an excellent opportunity to do so as they hand the ball to their ace, Logan Webb. Webb has picked up right where he left off in 2023, and he will keep them in this game, but it remains to be seen if the bats will support him.

Opposing Webb will be Taijuan Walker, who's making just his second start of the season. Walker's season debut was not pretty, but being in front of his hometown crowd at Citizens Bank Park could give him a jolt.

With the stage set, let's dive into my Sunday Night Baseball preview and Giants vs Phillies prediction.

The Giants were in an immediate hole last night as Keaton Winn had poor command in the rainy conditions, but the offense was unable to get much going against Ranger Suarez, to boot.

However, a closer look shows that could all change tonight. San Francisco is quietly 11th in average exit velocity and tenth in hard-hit rate, but they have yet to be rewarded, as their team batting average is just .239.

Their xBA is .246, and their xSLG is 26 points higher than their actual team slugging percentage. The runs are coming, and Taijuan Walker is a great guy to give them up.

Walker had a 4.38 ERA through 31 starts last year, and his biggest issue was not missing bats. He ranked in the tenth percentile in whiff rate and the 18th in strikeout rate.

That number 18 is prudent as it's the same rank the Giants have in team strikeout rate. So there will be plenty of balls in play, and the Giants are due to have good results at the dish. Don't be surprised if they get it going early tonight.

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On the other side, the Philadelphia Phillies may be thinking that they should have saved some runs for tonight as they will be hard to come by. The Phillies are due for a bit of regression as their xBA is five points lower than their current team batting average, and Logan Webb will be a big reason why we see their average drop tonight.

Webb comes into this start with a 2.98 ERA, and while he's not missing bats like he was last year, he's made up for it by generating ground balls. Webb is arguably the best sinkerball in the game as his groundball rate sits in the 95th percentile, and it is nearly 15% higher than the league average.

So, while the Phillies may rank 18th in ground ball rate, they have yet to face someone like Webb. Expectations for Philly's bats tonight should be tempered.

As you can see by now, there is a wide range of outcomes for this matchup, and the market agrees as the lines are tight with very little movement in any direction. However, there is an angle angle with one of the starters that we can capitalize on.

We know the Giants don't strike out much, and the Taijuan Walker does not miss bats. That is the perfect recipe for an under in strikeouts.

Walker has gone under his listed strikeout total in 55% of his last 60 starts. Add the tough matchup, and you will have a strong bet for Sunday Night Baseball.

Pick: Taijuan Walker Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)