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Guardians vs. Blue Jays MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Betting Guide to Sunday’s Elite AL Matchup (August 14)

Guardians vs. Blue Jays MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Betting Guide to Sunday’s Elite AL Matchup (August 14) article feature image
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Photo by Mark Blinch/Getty Images. Pictured: Steven Kwan, Will Benson & Oscar Gonzalez (Guardians)

Guardians vs. Blue Jays Odds

Guardians Odds +124
Blue Jays Odds -146
Over/Under 7.5 (-118/-104)
Time 1:37 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

On Sunday, the Cleveland Guardians and Toronto Blue Jays square off in the rubber match of their three-game series. Frankly, there are a couple of really great matchups on this Sunday’s slate, but this may be the best one of them all.

Shane Bieber gets the ball for the Guardians, and he’ll be squaring off against Kevin Gausman for the Jays. The two veterans with lots of big-game experience will look to deliver a series victory for their respective teams.

With a victory, the Guards would create more distance between themselves and the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays look to maintain their lead in the AL Wild Card standings.

Guardians to Rely on Bieber on Road

Bieber has come back and shut down the naysayers by putting together an excellent 2022 campaign. He didn’t return to Cy Young form, but he’s still been the leader of the Guards’ rotation this season.

In 83 road innings, Bieber has posted a 3.04 ERA with a 3.19 FIP and a 3.28 xFIP. He’s been incredibly solid in a relatively large sample — he’s making his 14th road start on Sunday.

The Guardians have also been a very good offense against RHP all season. Over the past two weeks, the Guards have posted a 121 wRC+ on the road against RHP, which is good for eighth in MLB over that span.

Additionally, the Guards’ bullpen has been lights out over the past couple of weeks. While they have faced some weaker offenses over that time span, the work they’ve done against the Houston Astros — and now the Toronto Blue Jays — is notable.


Jays Have Major Red Flags

Gausman has been relatively unlucky at home this season. He has a 4.19 ERA at the Rogers Centre, but that comes with a 2.30 FIP and a 2.77 xFIP. Therefore, he should be pitching better than he has been.

Surprisingly, the Blue Jays’ offense has been in quite a funk of late. Two weeks is a small sample size, but in that time span, they have the worst wRC+ at home against RHP.

One of the reasons for the struggles: the Blue Jays are a much different team without George Springer at the top of their lineup. They are 49-40 with Springer, and just 12-11 without him.

Furthermore, the Jays’ bullpen has been a shaky bunch this season, and they are in the midst of one of their collective funks over the past couple of weeks.

There are lots of red flags around this team at the moment.

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Guardians-Blue Jays Pick

While Gausman’s lack of luck is not a particularly strong reason to fade the Blue Jays, the Guardians’ offense is not a unit where any slight misstep would be forgiven. They are a patient and tough team, so Gausman could be vulnerable if his defense does not back him up.

Additionally, the Jays’ unreliable bullpen and struggling offense are also huge causes for concern. Considering how mortal the Jays’ offense seems without Springer, the value lies on the Guardians runline.

The Guardians opened as underdogs, and their moneyline sits around +120 odds. Considering the edges the Guardians seem to have in this matchup, they are the team to back — as long as they’re in plus money.

Pick: Guards ML +120

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