The Boston Red Sox host the Houston Astros on August 1, 2025. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on Apple TV+.
Find my MLB betting preview and Astros vs Red Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Astros vs Red Sox Prediction
Astros vs Red Sox pick: Under 8
My Astros vs Red Sox best bet is on the under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Astros vs Red Sox Odds, Spread, Best Bet
| Houston Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +129 | 8 -111o / -110u | -131 |
| Boston Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -157 | 8 -111o / -110u | +107 |
Astros vs Red Sox Run Line: Astros -1.5 (+129); Red Sox +1.5 (-157)
Astros vs Red Sox Totals: 8 (O -111 / U -110)
Astros vs Red Sox Moneyline: Astros -131; Red Sox +107
Astros vs Red Sox Best Bet: Under 8
My Astros vs Red Sox Betting Preview
Houston Astros Betting Preview: Brown Rising, But Offense Still Lagging
Hunter Brown has developed into one of the league’s best pitchers. He came onto the season last year with a 3.49 ERA and was filthy down the stretch. He's been even better this season. Brown’s 2.54 ERA ranks third in the American League, and he currently sits top-five in AL Cy Young odds.
Brown has an elite fastball that he throws in the upper 90s, and he added a sinker to his arsenal in the middle of last season. He's been brilliant ever since. He ranks in the top 10% of the league in strikeout rate with his fastball and curveball and then uses the sinker to generate weak ground balls.
The pitching staff has been lethal, which has helped them overcome a bunch of injuries and a subpar offense.
Yordan Alvarez has missed most of the season, and Jeremy Pena and Isaac Paredes are both on the injured list as well. The Astros are just 17th in scoring. They sit 11th in wOBA on the year but 23rd over the last two weeks.
Jose Altuve continues to get it done, but he's the only player on Houston with an OPS above .800 that isn’t on the injured list. They've been much better against left-handed hitters this season, but this lineup lacks power.
Hopefully for them, Correa will have a boost in the second half coming back to Houston.
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview: Offense Surging, Pitching Uncertain
Boston has elected to bump Garrett Crochet’s start to next week to allow him extra rest. They'll turn to a bullpen or one-off spot start in this one, likely from Cooper Criswell.
Criswell started a good bit last season, but he's been only used out of the bullpen in the majors, in limited action.
The results haven't been good for Criswell, and he's spent most of the season in Triple-A Worcester. Criswell has made just six appearances for Boston this year and has a 5.06 ERA. He's allowed six earned runs in 10 innings and has yet to pitch more than three innings in a game.
Despite trading away their best player, the Red Sox still rank fourth in scoring on the season. They strike out a ton, but when they do put the ball in play, they tend to do something with it. Boston has the highest BABIP in the league.
Over the last month, the Red Sox rank third in wOBA, and that's been in large part to their young stars getting comfortable.
Roman Anthony is hitting .333 with a .954 OPS over the last month, Jarren Duran has caught fire after a breakout season last year and former Astros star Alex Bregman is back from the IL.
Astros vs Red Sox Prediction, Betting Analysis
Brown has developed into one of the game’s most elite pitchers. You typically want your starting pitcher to either miss bats or generate soft ground balls. Brown has been terrific at doing both.
He throws a nearly untouchable fastball (that averages 97 miles per hour) that he pairs with a curveball to punch out hitters. Both pitches have a 42% strikeout rate and that helps him rank sixth in the league in strikeouts.
When he isn’t striking out guys, he also throws a sinker and a changeup that he uses to generate a 45.5% ground-ball rate and a miniscule hard-hit percentage that ranks in the top seven percent of the league.
As good as the Red Sox's young lineup has looked recently, this team still strikes out a ton. Boston has the third-most strikeouts in the league and now has to face one of the toughest pitchers in the league to put the ball in play against.
While Criswell doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence, you only need him to get through an inning or two before a fully-rested bullpen can go to work. Houston’s offense ranks just 23rd in the league in wRC+ since the All-Star break and will be in its worst splits to start the game against a right-handed pitcher.
I know Astros fans are excited to see Correa return, but he has an OPS of just .705 this season, the lowest mark of his career.
Both of these teams have favored the under this season, and that's where I see the most value on Friday night.
Pick: Under 8
