The New York Yankees open a three-game series against the Kansas City Royals on Tuesday, June 10. First pitch from Kauffman Stadium is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on TBS.
This Yankees-Royals series opener features an intriguing starting pitching matchup between southpaws Max Fried and Noah Cameron. Fried sports the fourth-best best ERA among qualified starters at 1.78 while the rookie Cameron has a 0.85 ERA through his first five big-league starts.
Continue below to find my Royals vs Yankees spread prediction — plus a same-game parlay — for this ALDS rematch.
My Royals vs Yankees Prediction
- Royals vs Yankees pick: Yankees Run Line -1.5 (-120 to -130)
My Royals vs Yankees best bet is the Yankees to cover the spread. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Royals vs Yankees Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +101 | 8.5 -108o / -111u | -200 |
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -121 | 8.5 -108o / -111u | +165 |
Royals vs Yankees Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Noah Cameron (KC) | Stat | LHP Max Fried (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | W-L | 8-1 |
| 0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.1 |
| 0.85 / 3.18 | ERA /xERA | 1.78 / 3.40 |
| 3,64 / 5.49 | FIP / xFIP | 2.79 / 3.17 |
| 0.79 | WHIP | 0.94 |
| 7.6% | K-BB% | 18.5% |
| 38.6% | GB% | 51.8% |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 108 |
| 99 | Location+ | 104 |
Nick Martin's Royals vs Yankees Preview
Kansas City Royals Betting Preview: Cameron's Fast Start
Cameron is off to a historically strong start to his big-league career, having lasted at least six innings in each of his five starts this season and never allowing more than one earned run.
Cameron made FanGraphs' Top 100 Prospects List entering the season and was viewed as a prospect with high potential, but he still profiles as a candidate for negative regression, as you would expect given his 0.85 ERA.
Cameron has stranded 99.1% of baserunners and allowed a BABIP of .148. He holds a K-BB% of 7.6, and an xFIP of 4.59. He has shown strong command of his five-pitch mix thus far, but his fastball tops out at 92 mph, and he holds a Stuff+ rating of 93.
A lack of depth offensively has been a significant concern for the Royals, who hold a 26th-ranked wRC+ rating and have slugged just .372. They have been even less productive versus left-handed pitching, as they hold a wRC+ of 71 and OPS of .628.
New York Yankees Betting Preview: Fried Running Hot
The Yankees allowed 27 runs during their three-game series against the Red Sox over the weekend but will have a good chance to get right with Max Fried set to make his 14th start of the season in this matchup.
Fried currently ranks third among qualified AL starters with an ERA of 1.78, and is tied for the league lead with eight wins. He holds an xERA of 3.40 and an xFIP of 3.17 across 81 innings and a K-BB% of 18.5. He holds a career-best Stuff+ rating of 108, as well as a career-best Pitching+ rating of 113.
Across his last six starts, Fried has been in excellent form, with an xFIP of 2.47 and a K-BB% of 22.5. His pitch metrics have also improved over that span, as he owns a Pitching+ rating of 122.
The Yankees' lineup has remained highly productive over the last month, as they rank third in wRC+ and second in OPS. They also hold the second-best BB/K ratio in that span and rank fourth in hard-hit rate.
New York has hit left-handed pitching better than any other team this season by a fairly significant margin based on its wRC+ rating of 135 and OPS of .836.
Royals vs Yankees Prediction, Betting Analysis
This looks like a good spot to target Cameron's inevitable regression in a matchup versus a Yankees side that offers the most productive lineup in the league versus left-handed pitching.
Cameron's underlying metrics suggest he is due to come down to earth soon, and the quality of his stuff suggests opponents should be able to make even more hard contact moving forward.
Fried has had a tremendous start to the campaign, and most underlying statistics suggest he is pitching at an even higher level now than he was at the start of the season. He gets a great matchup versus a Royals side that has struggled mightily with left-handed pitchers this season and offers plenty of easy outs further down the lineup.
At a price of -120, there looks to be value backing the Yankees to cover the run-line, and I would bet it down to -130.
Pick: Yankees -1.5 (-120 to -130)
Moneyline
As outlined, backing the Yankees to cover the run line at -120 is my favorite play from this game, which means backing them to win at -200 is also a play worth making.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm betting the Yankees' run line.
Over/Under
A total of 8.5 looks fair given the starting pitching matchup and expected conditions for tonight's matchup.
Royals vs Yankees Same-Game Parlay
- Max Fried to Record the Win
- Noah Cameron Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed
- Royals Under 3.5 Runs
Parlay odds: +240 (bet365)
Fried should have a great chance of pitching deep into this game considering his recent form and how the Royals have struggled with left-handed pitching this season.
Cameron looks like a pure regression candidate, and will likely allow plenty of hard-contact versus a Yankees side that remains red-hot offensively and has crushed left-handed pitching this season.
