KBO, CPBL Odds, Picks & Betting Model (May 9): LG Twins vs. NC Dinos, Brothers vs. Monkeys
Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images. Pictured: Yoo Gang-nam
Underdogs stayed hot in the KBO on Friday, with a 4-1 day pushing their season record to 11-9, +5.05 units (based upon closing lines).
It also marked the highest-scoring day of the 2020 season so far, with 63 runs across five games (average 12.6) as bullpens begin to fatigue later in the week, and back of the rotation arms falter.
As a result, game totals have slowly ticked up since opening day, but do figure to go back down once we cycle around to the opening day starters on Sunday.
The two other overs that I took a long look at for Friday — including the Giants-SK total, which took off after open and the Dinos-Twins total, which took a ton of under money and kept moving down all day Thursday, both cashed quickly.
The one over that I did bet finished in a shutout — as the Lions and Tigers left the bases loaded on multiple occasions. I’d say it was another bad beat, and you’d call me a liar looking at a 5-0 final score, but just take a look at the box score — the teams combined for five runs on 11 hits 13 walks, one error, and one double play.
Back of the envelope math is 0.5 runs per hit, 0.33 per walk or error, and -0.5 per double play — add it all up, and you get 9.6 runs. One hit in one of those bases loaded spots likely changes the entire outcome — but that’s true for almost every baseball game.
Since unders are 3-1 in Daegu, I feel that I’ll continue to find value betting overs in that park after for now, but only at the right number.
I didn’t see any actionable value on the KBO side of the board for Saturday based upon opening lines. Still, there are some games that I’m keeping a close eye on, and will continue to monitor for line movement throughout the day.
I also placed a bet on one CPBL game, but will first take a look at Saturday morning’s ESPN game — featuring the LG Twins (1-3) and NC Dinos (4-0).
- KBO Year to Date: 7-9 (+0.18 Units)
- CPBL Year to Date: 25-16 (+7.54 Units)
KBO Betting Odds
LG Twins vs. NC Dinos
- Twins moneyline: -104
- Dinos moneyline: -122
- Over/under: 9.5
- Time: 4 a.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
- BET NOW
Probable Pitchers: Chan-gyu Lim (Twins) vs. Young-gyu Kim (Dinos)
The Samsung Lions and KT Wiz finally put their first game into the win column on Friday, while the Lotte Giants and NC Dinos remained undefeated.
The Giants, who finished with 48 wins in 2019 after a 68 win season in 2018, are the cinderella – listed at +2000 in the futures market before the season, and given just a 15% chance by FanGraphs Zips projections, only ahead of the Eagles, at making the playoffs. That’s despite them having the highest payroll in the KBO.
With Eric Thames in their lineup, from 2015-2016, the Dinos averaged 79 wins per year and finished 3rd, 2nd, and 2nd during the regular season, but they bottomed out in 2018, with 58 wins and 56 Pythagorean wins.
However, the Dinos opened the stunning Changwon NC Park in 2019 — a home deserving of their sensational mascots — Seri, a.k.a. Swole Daddy and Dandy. And this analytics-friendly organization signed potentially the most impactful position player in the KBO — catcher Eui-Ji Yang, from the Doosan Bears:
Doosan's Yang Eui-ji hit this home run an estimated 140 meters (459 feet); it landed right in front of the scoreboard's clock pic.twitter.com/r0BobRM57j
— Dan Kurtz (@MyKBO) May 23, 2018
Yang posted a 174 wRC+ with more walks than strikeouts last season and led all KBO position players in WAR (5.35).
He helped the Dinos back to the playoffs, despite losing their best overall hitter, Sung-bum Na, for the majority of the season.
Yang could probably be a successful MLB catcher in 2020 (assuming that they play games), but he’s already 32 years old, and Korean position players aren’t viewed so favorably by MLB clubs.
As you can see above, he has significant power. He also has a sharp eye, excellent hit tool, powerful throwing arm, and perhaps most importantly, he’s an Adrian-Beltre level character:
Mike Wright has looked very formidable against KBO hitters, and should help out the Dinos rotation. On Saturday, with every team on their fifth starter or opener of the week, the Dinos will use 20-year-old Young-gyu Kim — whose final start of 2019 was a gem: 9 IP, 7 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 8 K (109 pitches):
Kim pitched to a 5.01 FIP over 10 starts and 30 appearances, but he has potential. He threw his 80-83 mph slider a ton in that start above and generated several swinging strikes both inside and outside of the zone.
His changeup also showed solid late fade, and he should be able to keep the ball on the ground.
I like his upside.
Conversely, Twins starter Chan-gyu Lim is a 27-year-old righty who posted a 4.99 FIP with his worst K/BB ratio in three seasons last year — though he was relatively productive over the final six weeks of the 2019 season.
At best for the Twins, the pitching matchup seems like a wash. It depends upon how much the Dinos’ young lefty has improved.
The Twins’ stars are former Baltimore Oriole Hyun-Soo Kim, shortstop Ji-hwan Oh — one of the best defenders in the KBO, and Mexican-born Roberto Ramos — a recently acquired minor league slugger who should finish near the top of the KBO leaderboards.
Kim is an absolute star in Korea:
Like the Dinos’ catcher Yang, Kim also walked more often than he struck out in 2019. So you’re seeing two of the best pure hitters in the KBO go head-to-head in this series.
I projected the Dinos just around a -124 (implied 55%) favorite in this matchup, so I don’t see value on either side of the moneyline as of writing.
I would consider betting the Dinos at a 5% edge at around +100 (implied 50%), and I would bet the underdog Twins at a number higher than +150 (implied 40%), which is also a 5% edge. Use our betting calculator to find your edge if you have different odds.
I am keeping an eye on the total, which I projected at 11.03. I would play a 4% edge, for a half-unit, on Over 9.5 up to -115.
LG Twins vs. NC Dinos Picks
- Twins/Dinos, Over 9.5 (-115, 0.5 units)
CPBL Betting Odds
Rakuten Monkeys vs. CTBC Brothers
- Monkeys moneyline: -215
- Brothers moneyline: +160
- Over/Under: 13.5
- Time: 5:05 a.m. ET
- BET NOW
Probable Pitchers: Lisalverto Bonilla (Monkeys) vs. Esmil Rogers (Brothers)
It was challenging to find a line just about anywhere for Friday’s Monkeys-Brothers matchup, which featured arguably the two best starters in the CPBL — Ryan Carpenter and Ariel Miranda.
I never miss an opportunity to bet against Carpenter when he’s a heavy favorite, and though I wasn’t able to post a play publicly, I did reap some rewards from a bad line.
The Brothers opened as high as +185 in that matchup and got bet all the way down to a pick’em in some spots, before prevailing 8-6.
This marks the second consecutive start for Esmil Rogers against the Monkeys. The righty was shelled for eight runs in fewer than three innings on May 2, where he was listed as a +160 road underdog — and I had him projected as the favorite.
He got walloped in that start, but I have to give him a pass, coming off of a couple of high pitch-count outings. Though he’ll need to find his best stuff, his arm should also be a bitter better rested for this try.
And he faces Lisalverto Bonilla, who I’m not very high on, at home, but I still make Bonilla and the CPBL’s best team a favorite – I just don’t think that they win this game 66% of the time.
At odds of +183 (implied 35%), I bet nearly an 11% edge on the Brothers, compared to my projection at 46%. I would bet them down to +165, implied 38%, and an 8% edge. Use our betting calculator to find your edge if you have different odds.
Rakuten Monkeys vs. CTBC Brothers Picks
- CTBC Brothers +183 (1 unit)
Full CPBL Betting Card for May 9
- CTBC Brothers +183 (1 unit)
CPBL Year to Date: 25-16 (+7.54 Units)
Full KBO Betting Card for May 9
- Twins/Dinos, Over 9.5 (-115, 0.5 units)
- Tigers/Lions Over 9.5 (-104, 0.5 units)
- KT Wiz +180 (1 unit)
KBO Year to Date: 7-9 (+0.18 Units)
Zerillo’s Full KBO + CPBL Model, 5/9
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below: