KBO Odds, Picks, Predictions & Betting Model (Thursday, May 14): Will Tyler Wilson Return to 2019 form for LG Twins?
Photo by Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images. Pictured: KBO baseball.
On Wednesday, I had my best day in terms of closing line value (“CLV”) during this strange 2020 baseball season, betting both the Hanwha Eagles and SK Wyverns as underdogs — before the lines eventually flipped and they each closed as -132 favorites.
Naturally, both teams lost, but I would make either of those plays 100 times out of 100. Right side, wrong result.
In the CPBL, the under that I played moved down by at least two runs, from 15.5 to 13.5 with heavy vig on the under, and if you read Wednesday’s preview, I also told you to, “play the Lions’ moneyline if it gets near +350.”
For my fellow night owls, I uncovered a ridiculous +375 about four hours before the first pitch, and while I couldn’t make it an official play in the column — it just didn’t feel right at that time of night — patiently waiting for the right number got me back to even for the day.
Stay vigilant, have a plan, and always shop for the best price.
- KBO Year to Date: 10-15 (-2.82 Units)
- CPBL Year to Date: 26-18 (+6.54 Units)
KBO Odds, Picks, Predictions & Betting Model
SK Wyverns vs. LG Twins
- Wyverns moneyline: +155
- Twins moneyline: -200
- Over/under: 8.5
- Time: 5:30 a.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
- BET NOW
Probable Pitchers: Jong-hoon Park (Wyverns) vs. Tyler Wilson (Twins)
SK Wyverns took a ton of money for Wednesday, and they got absolutely blown out by the Twins 14-2 — they are quickly trending towards becoming the KBO’s most disappointing team in 2020.
They’ll turn to Jong-hoon Park to stop the bleeding. The submarine righty has averaged 28.5 starts for SK in the past four seasons and posted a 4.55 FIP in 2019, but he’s a relatively ineffective innings-eater:
The Twins will counter with Tyler Wilson, who pitched to a 2.94 ERA and 3.24 FIP in 2019, his second year with the Twins. He will hope to be sharper than he was in his season debut against the Dinos (4.1 IP, 7 H, 7 R, 4 BB, 2 K) on May 8.
The former Baltimore Oriole owns a fastball/slider/changeup combo that has proven effective against KBO hitters:
At current odds of +155 (implied 39.2%), I see a small 1.1% edge on the Wyverns moneyline, compared to my projection at 40.3%. I would bet the underdog Wyverns at +185 (implied 35%) or better, a 5.3% edge. Use our betting calculator to find your edge if you have different odds.
Additionally, I project this game for a reasonably low total and would bet Under 10 (-108), a 5.1% edge compared to my projection at 8.7.
See all of Thursday’s KBO and CPBL projections below, and check back later today for my picks on the Wyverns-Twins game, and Thursday’s other KBO and CPBL games.
SK Wyverns vs. LG Twins Picks
Around the KBO and CPBL
In Thursday’s lone CPBL matchup, I would keep an eye out for Under 14 (-110) or better, though I only noticed that total coming down from an opening number of 13.5
In the KBO, I have made two plays thus far, including a bet on the woeful KT Wiz bullpen, who just cannot stop blowing leads — allowing two two-run frames to the Dinos on Wednesday, to erase one-run edges in the eighth and 10th innings.
I figured that there might be betting value on the Wiz for Thursday’s matchup, and they jumped off of the page.
Their starter, Je-seong Bae, posted a 3.91 FIP in 2019, comparable to Dinos’ southpaw Chang-mo Koo (3.76), one of the league’s best strikeout arms:
Last night's K leader was NC Dino Chang-mo Koo:
6 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB and 8 Ks
The southpaw had his slider working as he was incredibly effective at getting Ks in the bottom of the zone. pic.twitter.com/MJXFENEzLH
— Alex Fast (@AlexFast8) May 7, 2020
But Koo is known for those high strikeout totals, while Bae has also been extremely useful at a young age.
I bet a 10.9% edge on the Wiz at +169 (implied 37.2%) compared to my projection at 48.1%, and I would play them down to +140.
I also saw initial value on a rare favorite, as the Kiwoom Heroes take on the Samsung Lions. The Heroes have been substantial favorites all series because they have the best bullpens and lineups in the KBO, while the Lions have one of the worst of either.
Perhaps some people bought in on the Lions after Wednesday’s shutout, but that was with a former MLB pitcher on the hill and not a late developing 25-year-old-lefty like Chae-heung Choi, who posted a 4.81 ERA (3.94 FIP) in the KBO last season.
The Heroes bullpen should be well-rested for Thursday after a pair of reliable starts from their rotation, and Seung-ho Lee (4.35 FIP in 2019) is a high-upside lefty for their rotation.
I don’t often have the opportunity to bet favorites, but the Heroes were undervalued based upon the opening line.
I bet the Heroes at -154 (implied 60.6%), a 5.4% edge compared to my projection at 66%, and I would play them to -160, a 4.5% edge. Use our betting calculator to find your edge if you have different odds.
Full KBO Betting Card for May 14
- Kiwoom Heroes -154 (1 unit)
- KT Wiz +169 (1 unit)
- Bears/Giants, Under 10.5 (+105, 0.5 units)
KBO Year to Date: 10-15 (-2.82 Units)
Full CPBL Betting Card for May 14
CPBL Year to Date: 26-18 (+6.54 Units)
Zerillo’s Full KBO + CPBL Model, 5/14
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below: