KBO Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds & Model (Friday, June 12): Will Despaigne Pitch the Wiz Past the Lions?

Credit:

David Banks/Getty Images. Pictured: Odrisamer Despaigne

The Hanwha Eagles lost their 17th consecutive game on Thursday while getting shutout for the fourth time during their club-record losing streak.

The Eagles have not won since May 22, when they took the first of three games against the NC Dinos, 5-3, and they have averaged only 2.4 runs scored per game since.

Based upon their offensive output, the Eagles should have scored around 72 runs in those 17 games (4.2 runs per game), but thanks to lousy base running, ill-timed double plays, and futility with runners in scoring position, they scored only 41 runs, or 57% of their expected output.

With a loss on Friday, the Eagles would tie the Sammi Superstars (1985) for the longest losing streak in KBO history at 18 games.

They already fired their manager and demoted nine struggling veterans to the minor leagues over the weekend. Until something changes, the Eagles are entirely unplayable, both from a moneyline and a team total perspective.

If you are looking for more information about the KBO League, check out my season primer. If you want to know more about Taiwan’s CPBL, you can find that here.

  • KBO Year to Date: 48-68 (-13.79 Units)
  • CPBL Year to Date: 34-27 (+9.41 Units)

KBO Odds, Picks, Predictions & Betting Model


Odds as of 1 p.m. ET on Thursday and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions

  • Wiz moneyline: -220
  • Lions moneyline: +165
  • Over/under: 11
  • Time: 5:30 a.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN
  • BET NOW

Probable Pitchers: KT Wiz (Odrisamer Despaigne) vs. Samsung Lions (Seung-min Lee)

The KT Wiz (12-20) snapped a seven-game losing skid with a 13-8 win over the KIA Tigers on Thursday, and they’ll continue their road swing against the Samsung Lions (15-18), who just took two out of three games from the Kiwoom Heroes.

The Wiz (108 wRC+) are one of the better offensive teams in the KBO, while the Lions (80 wRC+) rank 9th out of 10 teams; and their pitching staff holds the same ranking for FIP (5.30), just behind the Wiz (5.22 FIP) and their atrocious bullpen.


FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.


The Wiz will deploy Odrisamer Despaigne (3.28 FIP) for his eighth start of the season on Friday.

The Cuban was dominant over his first five KBO starts, but has allowed 22 hits and 14 runs over his past two outings (10 innings pitched) and will look to right the ship against the Lions, whom he defeated on May 17 (6 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 4 K) for his first KBO win.

Each of Despaigne’s three best offerings is a fastball — a four-seamer, two-seamer and cutter — but he knows how to add and subtract from his pitches and save his best stuff for when he needs to get outs.

And both of his breaking pitches have been generating whiffs in the KBO:

 

Seung-min Lee is a bit of an unknown for the Lions. The 5’9″, 19-year-old lefty was the Lions’ fourth-round pick this year, and he has spent the season to date in the futures league, pitching to a 3.00 ERA over five appearances (21 IP, 16 H, 4 BB, 12 K).

Several pitchers from the KBO minors have previously made their KBO debuts this season, to varying degrees of success.

I project the Wiz as 65.9% favorites for Friday, and I would bet the Wiz to -160 (implied 61.5%), which is a 4.4% edge compared to my projection.

Conversely, I would look to bet the Lions at +235 (implied 30%) or better, which is a 4.1% edge compared to my projection (34.1%). Use our betting calculator to find your edge if you have different odds.

I project the total at 11.71 runs and would bet Over 10.5 (-106) or Over 11 (+104) at a 4% edge.

See all of Friday’s KBO and CPBL projections below, and check back later today for my picks on the Wiz-Lions game, and Friday’s other KBO and CPBL games.

KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions Picks

  • Samsung Lions Team Total, Over 3.5 (-135, 0.5 units)

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN, and WV only.]


Full KBO Betting Card for June 12

  • KIA Tigers -134 (1 unit)
  • Lotte Giants +138 (1 unit)
  • Lotte Giants Team Total, Over 3.5 (-115, 0.5 units)
  • Kiwoom Heroes Team Total, Over 3.5 (-128, 0.5 units)
  • Samsung Lions Team Total, Over 3.5 (-135, 0.5 units)

KBO Year to Date: 48-68 (-13.79 Units)

Full CPBL Betting Card for June 12

  • N/A

CPBL Year to Date: 34-27 (+9.41 Units)


Zerillo’s Full KBO + CPBL Model, June 12

Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game moneylines, over/unders, and team totals. A sample of one of the sheets is below: 

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