The Houston Astros host the Kansas City Royals on September 16, 2026. First pitch from Daikin Park is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on ROYL.
Find my MLB picks and Royals vs Astros prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Royals vs Astros Prediction
- Royals vs Astros Pick: Bobby Witt Jr. Home Run (19c, Kalshi)
Royals vs Astros Odds
Royals vs Astros MLB Preview
It’s sad to see Cristian Javier’s career fall apart due to injury. The right-hander, once a Cy Young candidate, has struggled to find consistency since 2023.
While he still generates swings and misses at an elite rate (30.1%), he is a fly-ball pitcher that struggled to limit barrels (9.2%). Against right-handed hitters, that barrel rate jumps to 12.8%.
While the velocity is not there for Javier anymore, he still relies on his fastball. He throws that pitch 51% of the time against right-handed hitters, adding in a sweeper as his secondary pitch. Together, those pitches make up 79% of what righties see when Javier stands opposite them.
That is a perfect segue to Witt, who has a +5 run value against the fastball and an even better +6 run value against the sweeper.
Witt’s underlying metrics continue to pop, as the 26-year-old ranks in the 97th percentile of all qualified hitters in xSLG (.509). He is split-proof as well, posting an OPS over .800 against both righties and lefties. In fact, 14-of-18 home runs have come against right-handed pitching.
Javier is great to fade in the home run market thanks to his 50% fly-ball rate allowed. I’m happy to back Witt here, who has the advantage given the pitch mix he’ll see tonight.
Pick: Bobby Witt Jr. Home Run (19c, Kalshi)
