KBO Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds: Can Heroes Extend Winning Streak vs. Twins on Sunday?
Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images. Pictured: Heroes OF Huh Jung-Heop
After a 4-1 day on Saturday, KBO favorites extended their hot streak to 14-1 over the past three days, and 36-14 over 10 days.
The only underdog to prevail over the past three days was the Kiwoom Heroes (17-12), who rallied for a 5-4 walk-off win after two runs in the seventh inning, one in the eighth, and two more in the ninth against the LG Twins (17-11).
The KBO’s third- and fourth-place teams will conclude their three-game set on Sunday, with the Heroes looking for a three-game sweep, their sixth consecutive victory, and their eighth win in nine games; while the Twins are trying to avoid losing their sixth game in eight tries.
The two clubs are right on the heels of the reigning KBO champion Doosan Bears (18-10) for second place, as the NC Dinos (22-6) continue to pad their lead atop the standings.
- KBO Year to Date: 37-52 (-9.99 Units)
- CPBL Year to Date: 34-25 (+10.48 Units)
KBO Odds, Picks, Predictions & Betting Model
LG Twins vs. Kiwoom Heroes
- Twins moneyline: +110
- Heroes moneyline: -139
- Over/under: 11
- Time: 5:00 a.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
- BET NOW
Probable Pitchers: LG Twins (Woo-chan Cha) vs. Kiwoom Heroes (Hyun-hee Han)
The Heroes lead the Twins 3-2 in the season series, with a 24-19 advantage in run differential — and these head-to-head matchups will likely be crucial for standings position at the end of the season.
On Sunday, Woo-chan Cha (4.81 FIP, 4.26 in 2019) will take the mound for the Twins against Hyun-hee Han (4.41 FIP, 3.28 in 2019) for the Heroes.
FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck.
wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.
Cha, a 32-year-old southpaw, has proven to be a useful arm in the middle of the Twins rotation, with middling velocity (86-87 mph) but solid command over a four-pitch arsenal which also includes a curveball, forkball and slider:
Cha Woo-chan, Very Nice 111km (69mph) Curveball.👍♋️ pic.twitter.com/hICh4Y5QT2
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 5, 2020
His command fell off in the past two seasons after posting a career-high 4.13 strikeout to walk ratio in 2017, but he hasn’t walked more than two batters in any of his 2020 starts while averaging nearly one strikeout per inning.
Han pitched to a 3.28 FIP out of the Heroes’ bullpen last season, but he posted a 5.45 FIP in their rotation in 2018, and a 4.86 FIP while splitting time between the bullpen and rotation in 2017.
The sidewinder was extremely effective in his most recent outing against the punchless Eagles (7 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 5 K) — the second time that he has defeated the KBO bottom-feeders this year:
Han Hyun-hee, 91mph Fastball and 81mph Slider, Overlay (synced at release) pic.twitter.com/1RlvyUGpEd
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 9, 2020
I’m curious to see how he performs against the Twins’ left-handed bats, who should be able to get some decent looks at his fastball/slider combination.
I project the Heroes as 57.1% favorites for Sunday and I would bet the Heroes to -113 (implied 53.1%), which is a 4% edge compared to my projection.
Conversely, I would look to bet the Twins at +163 (implied 38.9%) or better, which is a 4% edge compared to my projection (42.9%). Use our betting calculator to find your edge if you have different odds.
I projected the total at 10.82 runs and would bet Over 9.5 (-111) or Over 10 at a 3.9% edge.
See all of Sunday’s KBO and CPBL projections below, and check back later today for my picks on the Twins-Heroes game, and Sunday’s other KBO and CPBL games.
LG Twins vs. Kiwoom Heroes Picks
Full KBO Betting Card for June 7
- SK Wyverns -102 (1 unit)
- SK Wyverns Team Total, Over 4.5 (-105, 0.5 units)
- Hanwha Eagles Team Total, Over 3.5 (-120, 0.5 units)
- Lotte Giants team total over 3.5 (-120, 0.5 units)
KBO Year to Date: 39-55 (-10.01 Units)
Full CPBL Betting Card for June 7
- Uni-Lions +306 (0.5 units)
CPBL Year to Date: 34-25 (+10.48 Units)
Zerillo’s Full KBO + CPBL Model, June 7
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game moneylines, over/unders, and team totals. A sample of one of the sheets is below: