There are a whopping 10 afternoon games on the MLB docket for Friday, including several home openers.
Our staff is locked in. We’ve got bets on nearly every game, but here are four of our favorites for Nationals vs. Dodgers, Padres vs. Red Sox, Cubs vs. Guardians, and Mets vs. Giants.
Read on for our MLB Picks and Predictions for Friday, April 3.
MLB Picks, Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent the matchups our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:05 PM | |
  | 2:10 PM | |
  | 4:10 PM | |
  | 10:15 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Dodgers vs. Nationals Team Total Picks
The obvious choice would be to bet the Dodgers on the run line, but I get the sense that Emmet Sheehan will need some time to round into form, since it's so early in the year.
We often see that with pitchers as they ramp up in late March and early April.
With that in mind, I'm going to zero in on the Dodgers against Miles Mikolas and a weak Nationals bullpen.
After a series where the Dodgers couldn't get anything much going on offense against the Guardians, this is the ideal spot for the bats to wake up.
In addition to Mikolas, I want to target the Nationals' bullpen. Washington's relievers have combined for a 5.60 xFIP so far, which ranks 29th among MLB relief staffs.
Read Ammirante's full Dodgers-Nationals breakdown here:
Pick: Dodgers TT Over 5.5 (-130 or Better)
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Padres vs. Red Sox Moneyline Picks
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams.
In Major League Baseball, road underdogs playing interleague games have historically been undervalued by oddsmakers.
Since 2016, despite winning only 43.3% of these games, these teams have generated a consistent positive ROI of 4.6%.
This trend has proven reliable across five consecutive seasons, indicating market inefficiencies in how these specific matchups are priced — likely due to lack of familiarity between leagues and public overconfidence in home and favorite teams.
The Red Sox are a mess right now. They're 1-5 with a -15 run differential, the second-worst in baseball, leading only the lowly White Sox (-31).
Part of their problem was the inability to sign top-end talent in the offseason. Installing Sonny Gray as their No. 2 starter is the perfect example. He's an OK righty, but not exactly a top-tier starter, and he got rocked by the Reds in his Boston debut.
Michael King is an interesting sinkerballer who avoids hard contact well. He had an OK 2026 debut, but he upped his velocity a tick, so I'm willing to buy in and fade the slopfest in Boston.
Want more PRO Betting Systems? Download the Action Network App and sign up for an Action PRO Subscription here:
Pick: Padres ML (+100 or Better)
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Cubs vs Guardians Prop Picks
By Jon Anderson
I like both of these pitchers' ability to generate soft contact. Changeups are hard to hit out of the ballyard, and we'll see a lot of good changeups being thrown to lower-power hitters today. And my projection model agrees, giving this game fewer than two total homers.
Both pitchers are well below average in giving up homers.
2025-2026 HR/9 Rates (League Average = 1.18):
- Cade Horton: 0.80
- Joey Cantillo: 0.91
We're eating some juice on it, but I think it's an easy win today to add to the tally. I expected the line to be 1.5.
Tail all of Anderson's Bets on the Action Network App:
Pick: Under 2.5 HRs (-170)
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Mets vs. Giants Moneyline & Over/Under Picks
By Sean Zerillo
Variance sucks. Variance can also be amazing.
I know it from placing thousands of baseball bets and watching thousands of baseball games: Converting and preventing chances with runners in scoring position; hitting into or recording double plays; blown saves and meaningless ninth-inning runs; dropped popups and ill-timed errors; doubles that clip the line vs. flares that fall just foul.
The breaks, good and bad, seem to continue for days or even weeks at a time, leading to streakiness and frustration.
I try to keep both the losses and the crippling defeatism of this sport in perspective, both in my bets and in how I watch my team.
The Mets are batting .155 with runners in scoring position (11-for-71) through seven games. The team that finishes last in baseball in that stat typically bats around .220, meaning the Mets should have four or five more hits based upon the number of chances they have had, never mind the fact that they finished as a top-ten team with RISP in three of the past four seasons (averages of .260, .265, .269, and .243, 25th in 2023) since they employ above average hitters.
Things will turn around. The Mets are getting crushed by variance, and over the past week, so are we.
The only line that truly moved against us (a Cubs under which moved up from 9.5 to 10 after I misjudged the forecast), we survived a dropped flyball to cash the ticket, but we are otherwise 0-5 on totals with one-plus run of CLV.
My Tigers F5 ML bet on Wednesday against the Diamondbacks isn't the craziest example of variance, but it's easiest to explain. Corbin Carroll hit an opposite-field fly ball off Tarik Skubal that just got over the wall. Colt Keith subsequently crushed a ball (to right field instead of left) that hit the very top of the yellow line on the wall and deflected back in. Detroit lost the first five innings and the game 1-0, by roughly an inch.
There have also been some brutal under losses (a pair of dropped popups on the same day in Chicago and Philadelphia, which directly swung the totals; and meaningless ninth-inning runs in a pair of White Sox-Marlins and Yankees-Mariners games to lose unders that looked easy most of the way through). And it has also felt like every game in which we bet an Over or a side, the offenses hit a groundball to an infielder as soon as the leadoff man gets on (betting the Dodgers in a game where Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman all hit into double plays felt particularly special).
We also bet the Mets in the first five innings last night, and they lost 6-2 over that span, but there was a four-run swing involved — Matt Chapman hit a line-scraping double to score a run, and then scored himself from second on a miss-catch error by pitcher David Peterson at first base. Later, Harrison Bader robbed a potential two-run homer by Bo Bichette.
Still, I show an edge on the Mets for Friday and hope their offense will finally string together hits and revert to their opening-day form.
Despite struggling with command in his 2026 debut, Nolan McLean rates among the best pitching prospects in the sport (career 3.49 xERA, 2.80 xFIP, 22.4% K-BB%). Since he debuted, McLean ranks eighth in xFIP and 23rd in K-BB rate among starting pitchers.
McLean (projected FIP range of 3.82 to 4.04; projected K-BB% range of 12.9% to 15.7%) is likely underprojected. He has elite, high-spin secondary stuff, and he has already posted a 31% K% through 53 MLB innings, compared to a projected strikeout rate closer to 24%.
Tyler Mahle overperformed last season (2.18 ERA, 4.23 xERA, 4.43 xFIP, 10.7% K-BB%) compared to below-average metrics. He offers solid command (career 108 Location+, 8.4% walk rate), but he doesn't have a single plus pitch in his arsenal. Still, Mahle is a solid fit at Oracle Park, which should help suppress his home run tilt (career 1.27 HR/9).
You can bet the Mets on the F5 moneyline at -150, or their full game line at -140. Alternatively, or in addition, take the Over 7.5 at -115.
Given the quality of the Mets' offense, I'd make this total closer to 9 on a weather-neutral day. However, I'm still at 8.1 even after calibrating for weather and making a downward adjustment to account for the forecast.
Read Zerillo's full Opening Pitch column for Friday here:
Pick: Mets ML (-140 or Better) | Over 7.5 (-115 or Better)
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