Lo Duca: Why I’m Taking On Seth Lugo’s Sinker At Coors Field

Jun 20, 2018 11:00 AM EDT

New York Mets at Colorado Rockies, 8:40 p.m. ET

  • Mets (Seth Lugo): -103
  • Rockies (Chad Bettis): -107
  • Over/Under: 11.5

Bet to Watch

Since I joined The Action Network, people have asked why I play so many MLB totals. Just like in any other sport, bookmakers will shade the odds toward the public, which means the Yankees, Cubs, Red Sox and Astros will get more tickets, while the awful teams — the Marlins, Reds and Royals — will get faded.

When it comes to totals, books can’t move the line as much. That makes the lines less deceiving, and gives you a better indication of how these games will likely play out. Of course, the books will sway toward dominant pitchers on good teams (think Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Luis Severino). So, to me, the line movement on over/unders is way more telling than it is for the game itself. Plus, most people are playing sides and not totals.

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Credit:

Joe Camporeale, USA Today Sports

Follow Paul Lo Duca on Twitter
@paulloduca16

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