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MLB Odds & Picks for Marlins vs. Nationals: Why to Back Lopez, Miami to Win Series

MLB Odds & Picks for Marlins vs. Nationals: Why to Back Lopez, Miami to Win Series article feature image
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Mark Brown/Getty Images. Pictured: Pablo Lopez.

  • The Marlins are looking to clinch a series victory on the road against the Nationals.
  • Pablo Lopez gets the start for Miami and although he's struggled of late, he may have the edge over Erick Fedde.
  • Jules Posner breaks down the matchup and provides a best bet below.

Marlins vs. Nationals Odds

Marlins Odds -140
Nationals Odds +115
Over/Under 8.5
Time 1:35 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Miami Marlins look to clinch a series victory over the Washington Nationals on Sunday afternoon. The Nationals have a 14-29 home record, but the Marlins are just 17-24 on the road this year. Perhaps you could say on the road the Marlins are … fish out of water?

Pablo Lopez gets the start for the Miami Marlins against Erick Fedde.

The Nats are 5-5 over their past 10 games and they’ll look to get back in the win column against the Marlins, who are 6-4 over their past 10.

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Miami Marlins: Is Anything Going Right These Days?

Take a cursory glance at the pitching match up and it is easy to assume the Marlins, with Pablo Lopez on the mound, would be a lock to win on Sunday. However, Lopez has been pitching really poorly of late and he’s been especially bad on the road.

Over his past five road starts, Lopez has a 5.53 ERA and a 5.48 FIP. His xFIP has been 3.63, but Lopez is historically a much less effective pitcher on the road throughout his career.

Speaking of ineffective, the Marlins offense has been one of the worst road offenses over the past three weeks, posting a 71 team wRC+ — 28th in MLB.

The Marlins bullpen has also been bad. It has the fifth highest ERA over the past three weeks. Honestly, I’m not sure how the Marlins are winning right now.

Washington Nationals: Fedde, Bullpen Struggling

Speaking of not winning, the Nationals continue to do that more than almost every team in MLB.

Their offense has actually been performing pretty well as of late. The Nationals have posted a 101 wRC+ over the past three weeks at home against right handers and have been fueled by players desperate to get traded away.

Erick Fedde takes the mound and he has been a pretty reliable innings eater, but that’s about it. Fedde has a 4.85 ERA and a 4.61 FIP at home this season, but against the Marlins struggling offense, he could be bad instead of really bad.

While the Marlins bullpen has given up a lot of runs lately, the Nationals bullpen has also given up a lot of runs, but the peripherals indicate they should be giving up more runs. The Washington bullpen has the highest FIP over the past three weeks.

Marlins-Nationals Pick

The combination of Erick Fedde and the Nationals bullpen definitely signals some favorability toward the Marlins. With the Marlins’ moneyline set at -140, this is actually a pretty fair value.

Even though Pablo Lopez has the name recognition, his unreliability on the road means the Marlins’ runline would be a reach. Stick with the moneyline at -150 or better. If it goes beyond that, the value diminishes, but it’s probably the safest bet in this match up.

Pick: Marlins ML -140

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