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Marlins vs. Phillies MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Bet Total With Aces Starting (Monday, June 13)

Marlins vs. Phillies MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Bet Total With Aces Starting (Monday, June 13) article feature image
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Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Nola.

  • The Phillies are home favorites in their series opener tonight against the Marlins.
  • It's a battle of aces on the mound, as Sandy Alcantara starts opposite Aaron Nola.
  • Nick Shlain breaks down the matchup and makes his betting pick below.

Marlins vs. Phillies Odds

Marlins Odds +110
Phillies Odds -135
Over/Under 7.5
Time 7:05 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Phillies have turned their season around by going 9-1 over the last 10 games. Philadelphia enters play Monday at 30-30, nine games behind the New York Mets in the National League East.

The Marlins didn’t have the same preseason expectations as the Phillies, but they aren’t far behind at 27-31 on the season. The Marlins are a strong 7-3 in their last 10 games and have a +23 run differential on the season compared to the Phillies’ +28.

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Alcantara Faces Difficult Matchup

The Phillies offense will have their work cut out for them Monday night against Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara. The right-hander has been outstanding this season, to the tune of a 1.64 ERA. Alcantara’s 3.52 xFIP indicates some regression, though. He also has a 24% strikeout rate, 7% walk rate and 54% ground-ball percentage this season.

The Phillies have quite a bit of power in their lineup, especially from the left side of the plate. Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper each have ISOs above .300 against right-handed pitching this season. Outfielder Odubel Herrera has an ISO above .200 against right-handed pitching in 2022, and shortstop Bryson Stott has hit four home runs in the month of June.

Alcantara may have his work cut out for him in this matchup, but he’s been fantastic on the mount recently. He’s thrown at least seven innings in each of his last six starts and has allowed just three earned runs over that stretch.


Nola Needs To Recover Home Form

Aaron Nola has a 3.50 ERA and 2.93 xFIP this season, as well as a 29% strikeout percentage, 3% walk rate and 44% ground-ball percentage.

The Marlins have a few power hitters in their lineup as Jazz Chisholm Jr., Jorge Soler and Jesús Sánchez each have ISOs above .200 against right-handed pitching this season. The Marlins also strike out quite a bit, as just one hitter in Miami’s projected lineup has a strikeout percentage below 19% against right-handed pitching this season.

While Nola has been a consistently good pitcher for years, he’s been a mixed bag lately. The Phillies ace has allowed at least four earned runs in three of his last six starts, and he has allowed at least four earned runs in his last two home starts.

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Marlins-Phillies Pick

I believe the Phillies are appropriately priced as home favorites here. Philadelphia has had its struggles on the road against the Marlins over the years and even this year, but this is a fair line for this being a home matchup.

While both starting pitchers are quality arms with good reputations, the value I’m seeing is on the over at 7.5 here. Alcantara has pitched brilliantly lately, but his xFIP is almost 2.00 runs higher than his ERA this year. Nola, meanwhile, has given up runs lately and has a shaky bullpen behind him. Both lineups also have plenty of pop. There’s also a decent amount of power in both of these lineups.

The model I use is projecting over eight runs in this game, so I’m taking the over at 7.5.

Pick: Over 7.5 (-110)

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