Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY Sports. Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Kyle Freeland (21).
New York Mets at Colorado Rockies, 3:10 p.m. ET
Mets (Steven Matz) +145
Rockies (Kyle Freeland) -161
Bet to Watch
The Mets and Rockies look to finish their high-scoring series Thursday afternoon at Coors Field. The first game in the series had 14 combined runs, while the past two have had 18 a piece. The scoring should carry over into today, but not without some strikeouts along the way.
I actually like the over for both pitchers’ strikeout props, but especially for Freeland. The 25-year-old southpaw has improved a good deal from his rookie season last year, and while striking guys out isn’t his forte, he should have an opportunity to rack up some Ks vs. the Mets.
He’s reached at least five strikeouts in seven of his past 10 starts, including three of four at Coors. Today, FantasyLabs is projecting 7.8 punchouts for Freeland, but his over/under prop is much lower.
His total of 5 (over-145), which comes out to an implied total of 5.8 — two whole strikeouts lower than the projection. However, another book is offering 4.5 (over-120), which implies just about three strikeouts lower than the projection.
Bettors should take advantage of this huge difference. Don’t be too afraid of Coors, either. While runs may very well come, these bullpens are already taxed considering their heavy workload as of late.
Expect today’s starters to take one for the team and eat some innings even if they are getting beat up a bit in the early going. Though I’ve also taken Matz over 3.5 (-130), my number one pick is …
Kyle Freeland over 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)